GLOBAL & DOMESTIC ENVIRONMENT 2025, INDIA’S CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

The year 2025 begins with notable geop o l i t i c a l shifts, including Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, regime changes in India’s neighborhood, ongoing conflicts, and evolving global alliances. These developments present both opportunities and challenges for India’s foreign policy and global engagement. The return of Donald Trump to power in the US will have tremendous effect on the global security scenario as Trump’s policies regarding the UkraineRussia conflict and the Israel-Gaza crisis will have a profound impact not only on the stability of these regions but also on the global balance of power. Similarly, the situation in Syria after take over by Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) and the decline in Iran’s influence will give a new direction to regional stability. The weakening role of disruptive organisations like Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah will tilt the balance of power in West Asia. China’s aggression continues to pose a challenge to global and regional stability. The emergence of China as super power and its military actions in the South and East China Sea, aggressive policy on Taiwan, and strategies in the Indo-Pacific region are a matter of concern for India as well as rest of the world. In addition, standoff and military pressure on the India-China border are a cause for concern for India.

Emergence of Polycrisis and increasing tensions between countries has brought global fora into focus and expansion of multilateral organizations like BRICS (a joint organization of India, Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO - which includes India, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan), the AUKUS (a security alliance of Australia, England and America) and the Quad (Australia, India, America and Japan) are reshaping the global balance of power. Last decade has seen growth in India’s stature in world fora and India has emerged has voice of Global South.

In terms of external security, the issues related to India-China border dispute, Chinese aggression in the maritime area and rhetoric of Pakistan and Bangladesh are important. Trade and technological competition between the two is also emerging as a new global challenge. Emerging developments in India’s neighborhood are also challenging national security. A Leftist regime in Sri Lanka, Pro Chinese regime in Nepal and anti India rhetoric in Maldives and Bangladesh makes our immediate borders vulnerable and poses a threat to stability in South Asia. Growing tensions in Pakistan-Afghanistan could try to bring instability in Kashmir, which requires extra vigilance. Instability in Myanmar, anti-Hindu rhetoric and vandalism of temples in Bangladesh and growing instability on the PakistanAfghanistan border could increase ethnic and religious tensions in India’s northeastern states. India’s geopolitical strategy in 2025 will involve navigating regional instability, fostering alliances, and leveraging opportunities in Africa and the West. As global dynamics evolve, India’s diplomatic agility will be critical in shaping its role as a leading global player and maintaining well balanced relations with US and Russia.

Security concerns from terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir from across the border still remain unresolved. However, the situation has improved in Jammu and Kashmir after the removal of Article 370 and conduct of peaceful elections. Manipur is still struggling with ethnic conflicts and occasional violence, despite the formation of a multi-ethnic peace committee by the Home Ministry. It’s time for the Prime Minister to personally address these issues. In Nagaland slow progress of peace talks and issues related to strict implementation of the ceasefire agreement and preventing rebel activities like extortion and forcible recruitment remains a cause of concern

Tensions arising out of socio-religious divisions in Assam and WB are a challenge to national unity. These problems can be resolved through cooperation of local communities and sensitive policy making. Though violence in Naxal affected areas has been controlled to an extent but sporadic incidents could still disrupt social stability. With Naxals on the back foot, it is time for the government to offer them a unilateral ceasefire, persuade them to negotiate, address their grievances, and try to integrate them into mainstream society. The new emerging threats in India like political polarization, divergence of thoughts on the Uniform Civil Code and farmers’ movements needs to be handled carefully by building consensus to curb divisive tendencies.

India must adopt a unified National Security Doctrine, to address internal security challenges effectively, streamline its security institutions, and integrate advanced technologies. Strengthening regional stability and modernising law enforcement will ensure a comprehensive and adaptive response to emerging threats. Enhanced coordination and strategic planning are essential for a secure and resilient India.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Col Rajesh Bhukar, The writer is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow