With Justin checks out, what it means for India

The Trudeau chapter is over. He came and went as if something comparable to TS Elliot’s impression of a stream of consciousness. It seemed like it was only yesterday that Justin Trudeau, the popular leader, was catapulted to power and how quickly he lost his popularity and was heaped with hoards of troubles especially over the last few years to call it quits.

THE INSIDE DISSENT

Trudeau had swept to power in 2015 and had smoothly led the Liberals to two more wins subsequently in 2019 and 2021. But he finally trailed his main rival, Conservative Pierre Poilievre, by 20 points… according to public opinion polls. Troublestricken Trudeau has faced a series of blows in recent times which include the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland.

WHY DID HE RESIGN?

In his resignation speech, a teary-eyed Justin Trudeau said it had become clear that he could not “be the leader during the next elections due to internal battles” and had planned to remain as prime minister until a new leader of the Liberal Party is chosen.

Trudeau’s resignation comes at a time when the world has been witnessing a deepening diplomatic rift with India. This happened after his allegations in 2023 regarding the killing of Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Trudeau had claimed that Canadian security agencies had found credible evidence suggesting that “agents of the Indian government” were involved in the killing of Nijjar outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, British Columbia. He stated in the House of Commons, “Canadian security agencies have been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar.”

A major diplomatic row erupted when Canada labelled India’s High Commissioner and other diplomats as “persons of interest” in the investigation of Nijjar’s death. India denied all the allegations, calling them “absurd” and “motivated”, accusing Ottawa of giving space to extremist and anti-India elements in the country. In October, Trudeau, while testifying before Canada’s foreign interference inquiry, admitted that India has been insisting on evidence over allegations levelled by Canada regarding the killing of Khalistani terrorists but his government had provided just intelligence, “not hard evidentiary proof.”

Reacting strongly, India said that it only “confirms” New Delhi’s consistent stand that Canada has “presented us no evidence” in support of the serious allegations Ottawa chose to level against India and Indian diplomats.

“The responsibility for the damage that this cavalier behaviour has caused to India-Canada relations lies with Prime Minister Trudeau alone,” said Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal.

As the Khalistani extremists in Canada openly targeted Hindus and their places of worship in the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also broke silence on the Canadian government’s leniency towards these groups, including expressions of support from Trudeau that emboldened such factions. “I strongly condemn the deliberate attack on a Hindu temple in Canada. Equally appalling are the cowardly attempts to intimidate our diplomats. Such acts of violence will never weaken India’s resolve. We expect the Canadian government to ensure justice and uphold the rule of law,” PM Modi posted on X in November.

Experts reckoned that PM Modi’s explicit message served as a warning not only to Khalistani activists but also the Canadian government. “Canada is on notice. Just to place this in context, the sentence ‘such acts of violence will never weaken India’s resolve’ in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s post is as explicit a message as it gets that the Khalistanis in Canada are state-sponsored anti-India groups of thugs, criminals and terrorists,” an analyst opined.

Trudeau was also continuously slammed, rebuked and trolled in his own backyard. Ripping into Justin Trudeau for massively failing to control the rising Sikh extremism, former Premier of British Columbia Ujjal Dosanjh said that the Canadian Prime Minister, like some other politicians of the country, is pandering to a “well-orchestrated Sikh vote” to tip the balance in close elections.

TRADE AND BIZ

During Trudeau’s tenure, trade ties between Canada and India had flourished significantly. By the end of the 2024 fiscal year, trade between the two countries had reached $8.4 billion. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) discussions assumed a central feature of trade negotiations during Trudeau’s tenure.

The Big Question now is how the new leadership will handle this aspect. Any change in policy could affect ongoing negotiations and potentially disrupt economic ties, especially if the new leader chooses to take a more protectionist stance.

India will be closely monitoring the developments to understand the future trajectory of bilateral economic relations.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Robin Roy, The writer is Senior Journalist and former Managing Editor, First India