ONE YEAR OF UKRAINE WAR IMPACT: GLOBAL AND INDIA

Its more than a year since the Russia- Ukraine war broke out on 24 Feb 2022 and so far the war has clearly been through three distinct phases. Phase1. Russian offensive and capture of almost 20% of Ukrainian territory and threatening its capital Kiev. Phase 2. The Ukraine counter offensive to claim back large chunk of its territory and relieved Kiev of Russian threat. The ongoing Phase 3. Russian forces have tried to encircle the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut and push deeper into the Donetsk region paving way for a new offensive for capture of the entire Donbas and to wear down Ukrainian forces for any offensives elsewhere. Ukraine awaits supply of arms and ammunition from US and western countries to resist any aggression by Russians and launch a counter offensive. The war seems to be plunging into a long-term stalemate and sort of an attritional unending war. Despite huge loss of life and property on both sides and Ukraine economy and infrastructure virtually devastated and razed to ground, there have been no sincere global efforts so far to mediate and end the conflict from or on behalf of either side. Currently there are no signs of end to this war, rather both sides are preparing for escalation and things are going to get muddier.

GLOBAL IMPACT OF THE WAR
The war has disrupted global trade and adversely affected markets and food supply. Ukraine has been a major grain exporter to Africa and the stoppage of grain exports has almost led to hunger crisis. European Union nations imported almost half their natural gas and third of their oil from Russia and the sanctions slapped on Russia delivered an energy price shock on a scale never seen before. Other than adverse impact on trade and economy the other impacts are: - Division of world on lines of cold war era with two blocs under USled western coalition and an emerging Russia-China axis.

Reignition of the arms race and rise in defence budget of most countries. The Germany is fast emerging as the major weapon supplier in Europe and Japan is boosting its military expenditure and production of weapons.

A new space has opened up for the non-aligned style of politics of multilateralism for those like India who are not strongly aligned with either of the blocs.

Emergence of a new system of banking and trade that is not entirely dependent on the US Dollar and the SWIFT system of transaction.

Diversification of sources of energy and food by European countries to reduce dependence on Russia and Ukraine and Russian lines of supply of energy mainly to Asia and food and fertilizer supply to Africa and South America.

The influence of the US over western Europe is undergoing a very significant transformation. As compared to western European allies the nine eastern European nations “Bucharest Nine” or “B-9” comprising Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and the Slovak Republic, have emerged as far more willing ally of the US fearing Russia as a direct threat to them. A new baseline for NATO’s deterrence and defence posture is likely to be in place reducing manoeuvrability of France And Germany.

Putin’s declaration on 21 Feb 2023 about suspending Russian participation in Strategic offensive Arms Treaty (START) has dangerous implications and opens gate for nuclear weapons race in the future.

INDIA’S POSITION
India has so far maintained a very fine balance between the long-term trusted ally Russia and Ukraine. While abstaining from voting against Russia in UN and other fora and purchasing natural gas despite US sanctions, India appeared to be siding with Russia but balanced it by extending humanitarian aid to Ukraine and also cautioned Russia that its not an era of war and all nations must respect the territorial sovereignty of other nations. So instead of causing a rupture, the war led to a deepening of ties between India and the west in general and the US in particular. The west has realised that in the emerging world order if China needs to be contained, then India is the fulcrum in the Indo-Pacific.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement that “no solution can ever arrive at the cost of human lives” and “today is not era of war” reiterates India’s position in the Russia-Ukraine war, that dialogue and diplomacy were the only viable way out. India’s steadfast commitment to multilateralism, strategic autonomy, refusal to be pushed out and maintaining independent views in the polarised world has made it emerge as global voice of south. A fact reiterated by India holding Presidencies of two most prominent world fora G-20 and SCO.

India’s stand in ongoing Finance Ministers and Central Bank Chiefs of G-20 meeting that its forum for discussing economic growth issues and is not keen to discuss or back any additional sanctions on Russia as the existing sanctions on Russia have had a negative impact on the world and the impending visit of German Chancellor to India in end Feb 2023 where the Germans see India as a very influential and extremely valuable partner and has both Ukraine war and China on talking list of issues of concern are indicative of India’s success in carving its independent place in global affairs.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

COL RAJESH BHUKAR The author is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defense Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow [email protected]