GLOBAL FALL OUT UKRAINE WAR

As a defence analyst, I have been critically following, observing and predicting the expected and the future of Russo - Ukraine conflict. After more than five months of impasse, the Eastern Europe is gripped by the most destructive European conventional military conflict since World War II. The damage done to Ukraine is most tragic though, indirectly it affects the entire EU. It is not just the refugee inflow and the corresponding economic burden on European countries, the ongoing war will have many other repercussions, world over. The Russian response to NATO sanctions is not only resulting in wider implications for the global economy but disproportionately affecting poorer countries. If media reports are to be believed, Ukrainians appear to be losing unity amid military defeats in the Donbass and mounting economic crisis. The surge of patriotism that arose when the Russian army was close to Kiev appears to have been exhausted. Along with it, the national consensus that saw all political groups rallying behind the Ukrainian army seems to have disappeared.

To counter the effects of sanctions, the Russian army has pivoted its strategy and appears to be concentrating on objectives of economic interest and by mid-June, Russia occupied 125.000 sq kms of Ukrainian territory. The civil society and the Army are now not hopeful of a speedy victory against the invaders and even Zelensky himself has lost his optimism. If we go by the recent history, we would learn that in the modern world, famines are man-made. The Russia - Ukraine war is a Suttle reminder of this fact and now threatens millions of endangered people around the world with extreme hunger.

Much to the trauma of the world, Ukraine remains the breadbasket for the world, exporting millions of tonnes of wheat, barley and maize every year. It is also a leader in sunflower seeds export used for vegetable oil. But overnight, these commodities have vanished from food stocks as Russia continues chocking the sea trade routes of Ukraine. The dominance of Black Sea by Russian Navy has plunged the global food markets into a turmoil, with soaring prices, export bans and shortages. Countries across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and even Latin America are reeling under the effects of this conflict. The threat to global food security is further aggravated by the upheaval in fuel and fertiliser markets as, shortages and price hikes reduce access to these vital inputs for farming community. Agriculturists believe that without urgent action, food production and crop yields will get slashed and may raise a frightening possibility of food crisis the world over in next 12 to 24 months and cause multiple famines.

Shockingly, the World Food Programme’s latest analysis, completed in Jun - July reveals there were 276 million severely hungry people marching towards starvation before the war. This number has risen to 345 million during the period of the Ukraine crisis. The report further says that a staggering 50 million people in 45 countries are now just one step from famine. Paradoxically, this War has demonstrated how interdependent EU is on the country they impose sanctions upon. However, some countries have already started detesting the NATO actions on Russia. As they understand how difficult it will be for them to beat the winters without availability of Russian gas. Kremlin controls 25% of world’s natural gas requirements and 18% of coal exports. While, European Union imports roughly 43 percent of its requirement of natural gas from Russia, making them heavily dependent on the superpower. Because of Putin’s decision to limit energy exports to many nations, the consequences of the European energy crisis have expanded and redefined the way in which Europe approaches energy efforts and its relations with Moscow. Should it stand by Ukraine and NATO or, allow its citizens, industry and economy to grow by mending fences with Russia is the moot question.

The leadership of Europe is also fearful that the lavish deliveries of ‘lethal weapons’ from the US, UK and other NATO countries to Ukraine are finding their way to the dark web. The Ukrainian traders claim to offer not just small arms or body Armor on the dark web, but also such sophisticated hardware as Javelin and NLAW antitank systems or Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade explosive drones that may disturb their eco subsystems. Its time, that world leaders come together by surrendering their own interest of dominance and arms sale to give priority to the very existence and development of the human race.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

COL ANUPAM JAITLY (RETD) The writer is Defence expert, Motivational Speaker & Corporate Trainer