YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN A FAILED COUP

As an observer of military warfare and events, my inquisitiveness drew me out to understanding the recent unexpected turn of events in Russia. The Army of Putin was thrown into utter confusion after the leader of a private mercenary group rose up in arms against the Kremlin in the fourth week of June. It indeed marked the most pronounced provocation to President Vladimir Putin’s leadership since 1999.

Chief of the Wagner Mercenary army, an old associate and trusted friend of Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin ordered his forces to leave the war front in Ukraine and march on to Moscow in a bid to provide a new leadership to Russia. In his attempt to topple Moscow, his forces captured a town called Rostov-on-Don, a key city 200 kms south of Moscow, dealing a blow to Kremlin War machine and elevating the stakes of civil unrest amidst the country’s involvement in Ukraine.

This Prigozhin’s mercenary group is a paramilitary organization in Russia which was set up in 2014 to support Russian annexation of Crimea and to aid pro-Russian separatists in the Eastern Donbas region of Ukraine.

Since then, it is suspected that the Wagner Group has been operating in many countries to promote interests of Russia. Syria, Libya, Venezuela, and the Central African Republic have reported the presence of Wagner group supporting the cause of Moscow’s policies.

The question arises as to who is Prigozhin? A thorough research reveals that Prigozhin was born in Jun 1961 in the erstwhile USSR and spent ten years in prison for petty crimes. After his jail term, he ran a hot dog kiosk before owning a series of high-profile restaurants in Saint Petersburg. As a restaurateur, he became famous amongst Russian elites and came into inner circle of Putin. The president dined at his restaurant with Prince Charles, former French President Jacques Chirac and George W. Bush.

The Russian media and the world nicknamed him as ‘Putin’s chef’. Soon he was observed heading notorious projects of Russia like the founder of the Internet Research Agency, a network of conglomerates that influenced the U.S. presidential elections of 2016. Accordingly, he was put on trial by a U.S. grand jury in 2018 and was placed on the FBI’s “most wanted” list. On suggestions from ministry of defence, he raised his mercenary army of 50K that comprised of retired soldiers from Russian army, foreign soldiers and prison inmates of various jails in Russia.

Yes, all of his forces were committed in Ukraine along side Russia and the reports suggested that while 9K died, about 20K were injured. Yet, the success of Bakhmut was mainly courtesy Wagner Army.

So, what really caused the friends to split with one declaring armed mutiny against the state and the other, the President, promising to destroy the rebel leader. According to Andrei Kartapolov, heading the Duma defence committee, a few days before the rebellion, the defence ministry announced that all groups in war missions against Ukraine must sign a contract with the ministry. Prigozhin refused to sign the contracts and therefore, was informed that Wagner would not take part in what the Kremlin calls the “special military operation” as reported by the state news agency TASS. The battle lines were drawn and Wagner Chief felt betrayed.

Despite all the threats, the Wagner chief realised that his 25K strength is no match to Russian army and his attempted coup may end up in Hara-kiri. Also, retribution and the promised violent reaction of Putin made Prigozhin realize he has bitten more than he could chew. Entry of Aleksandr Lukashenko on the scene proved to be a god’s gift and he agreed to call off his march on Moscow. 48 hours eventful drama, threatening a civil war has now been scaled down in an uneasy peace agreement between the two parties with Wagner Army returning back to Ukraine.

While some blame the NATO and specially the US for directing the drama to lift up the pressure from Ukraine and assist them in the counter offensive on the Southern and Eastern borders, many feel it was an uprising caused by fault lines within military decision makers at Kremlin.

The ugly split between the two friends, Putin and Prigozhin will also raise concerns about how long Wagner forces will continue to prop up Nicolas Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, and some governments in Africa. Will it have the same zeal and motivation now in Ukraine remains to be seen.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Col Anupam Jaitly (R) The writer is defence expert, motivational speaker and corporate trainer