WHY DRAGON PROVOKING INDIA: AFTER GALWAN NOW TAWANG

India and China share about 3,500 km long border which is not fully delineated and has been a consistent cause of conflict. Both nations have fought a war in 1962, had border skirmishes in Sikkim in 1967, Sumdorong Chu Valley 1987, Daulat Beg Oldie 2013, Doklam in 2017, and Galwan in Ladakh in 2020. Now just two-and-a-half years after Galwan, the Indian and Chinese troops faced off at the Yangtse area near Tawang in the eastern sector of their disputed border. These conflicts have been de-escalated but the questions still remain are how long will such skirmishes continue and what may possibly be the end result? Border dispute remains a major irritant and a potential source of conflict between the two neighbours.

PROBABLE ATTRIBUTES AND TAWANG CLASH
On differing perceptions on Line of Actual Control (LAC), in June 2020, Indian and Chinese troops got engaged in a brawl in Galwan Valley that left twenty Indian soldiers dead while causing an unspecified number of Chinese casualties. This border dispute marked an implacable decline in India-China ties. A series of meetings between military leaders and some diplomatic efforts resulted in de-escalation in Ladakh region but the LAC still remained focus of developmental and defence activities and uneasiness on both sides of border continued. India joining the Quad navies for an advanced Malabar naval exercise in Sea of Japan in Nov 2022, ‘Yudh Abhyas 2022’ Indian and US Army’s within 100 km of the LAC has all been perceived by Chinese as crossing of diplomatic and military red line. Some other issues like ascertaining authority by Xi Jinping on assuming third term and need to divert attention from protests in China over governmental anti covid policies and emerging discontentment may have contributed to this Chinese provocative action.

All these factors along with the fact that the Chinese side attempted to take control of the 17,000-ft (5,180-meter) peak dominating the whole region triggered the clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers in Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh on December 9, 2022. Chinese troops carried out an incursion across the LAC in Yangtse area of Tawang sector in Arunachal Pradesh, and the Indian Army countered this attempt by Chinese to change the status quo on the LAC in which both side soldiers had reportedly suffered some injuries in the clash.

The entire border between India and China is disputed but the flash point has remained in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh where the stakes are clearly higher. India claims some 45,000 square kilometers of territory in Aksai Chin in the western sector of the border, which China occupied in the 1962 war, while Beijing claims an area of around 90,000 square kilometers, roughly coinciding with the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, in the eastern sector. China’s interest in Arunachal is primarily to gain leverage in a future settlement of the border and use it as a bargaining chip for an eventual ‘swap’ and the recognition by India of the occupation by China of Aksai Chin.”

India hopes to become a primary power in its region, finally de-hyphenating from Pakistan, and able to compete with China in South Asia but this may be true as long as Indian military is strong enough to not allow a repeat of 1962 in the Himalayas. Despite ongoing Ukraine war entering a crucial and dangerous mode Modi’s statement that the ‘Era of War is Over’ is a belief that China will not go to war with an India. India by defining Pakistan as visible enemy and Terrorism as invisible enemy, leaving out China from the firing line may be deemed to be acceptance of China’s occupation of Indian Territory without firing a shot.

THE PATH AHEAD FOR MILITARY PLATFORMS
Need for more regular, systematic and progressive mutual talks through military platforms to help build mutual trust and arrive at common grounds and mutually acceptable solutions to normalise bilateral relations.

The diplomatic channels need to be more vigorous and arrive at mutually agreeable formula for lasting peace, a well defined demarcation and clarity on the LAC is crucial in this effort.

The United States and Russia have consistently figured in Sino Indian relations. India will have to formulate a firm policy where the proximity with US and Russia will have to be kept off the Sino India bilateral relations. The UNSC, G - 20, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), BRICS and Indo Pacific Initiative are some platforms where rising Indian clout has to be used to its maximum advantage.

Despite frequent border clashes and Aatmnirbhar Bharat, the Sino Indian trade is on rise and the latest data shows 34% rise in mutual trade and with disadvantage to India. A balanced trade and economic relationship might lay a solid foundation for future relations, given the size of both economies..

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

COL RAJESH BHUKAR The author is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defense Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow [email protected]