WHAT WERE MODI AND PUTIN REALLY TALKING ABOUT?

After the apparent success of a Ukrainian counter-offensive, politicians and the media have taken to evoking what they see as a “turning-point.” Doughty warriors such as General David Petraeus, for example, have expressed in the media their counter-intuitive belief that Ukraine can win the war. Earlier this year, in May, Patraeus had already asserted that “Ukraine has won,” so no one should be surprised to learn that he now believes the Ukrainians can win. Turning points are always good for believers. There are nevertheless three compelling reasons to suppose that a Ukrainian victory is less imminent than the adepts of turning points are inclined to believe. The first is the obvious fact that even after the change of fortune and exceptional pressure on their own resources, Russia still represents a stronger force than Ukraine. That would point to a stalemate rather than a victory for either side. The second is that the decision-makers in the White House, the Pentagon and Congress appear to favor a lasting standoff to a decisive victory. The third is that the apparent triumphs of September may be eclipsed by the imminent bad news developing in Europe, as the cost of electricity and heating begins to skyrocket at the approach of winter.

Without the kind of highlevel political solidarity that European governments have demonstrated throughout the spring and summer, a Ukrainian victory is unimaginable. Many European governments will soon find themselves under serious pressure coming from their populations that were not consulted on a commitment to war, especially a prolonged war. The people are less likely than ever over the past seven decades to identify with the idea of following the dictates of Washington and London. They now find themselves trapped in apparently uncontrollable inflation coupled with an ever more likely recession. After the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan last year, Europeans are less inclined to believe that the US can be trusted as their ally and protector. The problem is becoming more severe in the rest of the world. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has bravely resisted all the blandishments and subtle pressure of the US to align with the West against Russia. But the West has never given up hope that that might change. Last week, Modi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Samarkand, Uzbekistan and made headlines in the West, who applauded Modi for challenging the Russian leader. The headline of an article by Mary Ilyushina in The Washington Post stated, “Modi rebukes Putin over his war in Ukraine.” In the meeting Modi famously said: “Today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this.”

ERA OF WAR
Any moment in history, even those epochs in which people believe that peace is the norm made inevitable by their proclaimed belief in the ideals of democratic harmony, the rule of law and a prosperous globalized economy from which everyone is expected to gain an advantage.

CONTEXTUAL NOTE
Should this be called a rebuke? Only Western media, desperately seeking to interpret any remark that isn’t praise as condemnation could consider this a reprimand, reproach or rebuke. Business Insider avoids using the word rebuke and instead, more accurately, calls it a “remark.” But using in the same sentence the now obligatory epithet “unprovoked war,” the author conveys a similar meaning and even suggests that it is part of a global trend. “The Russian president’s remarks to his Indian counterpart echoed comments on Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine that he made to Chinese leader Xi Jinping the day prior. ‘We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis,” Putin said to Xi at the summit in Uzbekistan.’”

SOURCE: FAIROBSERVER

PETER ISACKSON  The writer is Fair Observer’s Chief Strategy Sfficer