ANXIOUS BANGLADESH BENDS TOWARDS CHINA: INDIA’S OPTIONS

The increasing instability in Bangladesh under the leadership of Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has made the situation volatile and the anxious government is taking desperate measures both on domestic and external matters to keep the situation under control. The civilmilitary relations are tearing apart, garment sector is crumbling, and signs of a deepening crisis are visible across key sectors. The worsening law and order situation, and unfocused foreign policy has isolated the country diplomatically and economic crisis are looming large as foreign investments are further dipping down. The corruption allegations are raising serious questions about the government’s intent and credibility. The recent visit of Yunus to China, where he announced a series of agreements and encouraged Beijing to expand its economic influence in Bangladesh is one desperate call to distract public anger and draw India’s attention. Yunus has controversially suggested that the landlocked status of India’s northeastern states presents an opportunity as Bangladesh alone could provide a sea route to the northeastern states of India. This development upsets the military balance in the Siliguri Corridor region, which connects the rest of India with the northeastern states and comes under the arc of vulnerability accentuated by Chinese ambitions to encircle India.

CURRENT SITUATION IN BANGLADESH

Bangladesh’s vital garment industry is in turmoil, a combination of financial distress, declining purchase orders, and lack of political direction has left the industry teetering.

There is growing friction between the military and the Yunus administration and the apparent disconnect between civilian and military leadership is adding to the country’s instability.

Bangladesh’s worsening law and order situation marked by looting, arson, murders, and militant activity that followed Hasina’s ouster has created chaos and anarchy. The National Citizen Party (NCP) is a political party initiated by the Students against Discrimination and the Jatiya Nagorik Committee to fill the political vacuum created with ouster of Awami League. This has brought one more player in the country where different visions of the state are gaining traction and competing to shape Bangladesh’s future.

Yunus government appears to be facing isolation on global front as relations with the US have been strained since Donald Trump’s return to power. Bangladesh’s pivot towards China and India has yielded limited results. Meanwhile, tensions with Russia over the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant and rising concerns over China’s expanding footprint have left Bangladesh with few reliable diplomatic allies. The only solace is growing closeness with one-time foe Pakistan and there are reports of co-operation on security matters between the two countries.

Allegations of corruption have surfaced against Yunus and several of his advisers as he has been accused of using his position to fast-track approvals for ventures linked to him and his associates.

With economic distress mounting, diplomatic relations faltering, and public discontent rising, Yunus’s tenure as Chief Adviser appears increasingly troubled. The coming months may prove decisive for Bangladesh’s political and economic trajectory.

NDIA’S OPTIONS

India shares deep historical, cultural, and linguistic ties with Bangladesh, rooted in their collaborative efforts during Bangladesh’s liberation. But the ties have been strained since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government and taking over by Yunus in August 2024.

Indian government has expressed its concerns to the interim government on regional security, rising extremism, attacks on minorities, and economic growth.

Despite India not approving Bangladesh handling of atrocities against religious minorities, Narendra Modi has taken a positive initiative by extending wishes on National Day of Bangladesh, and also affirming commitment to advancing the partnership between the two nations based on mutual sensitivity to each other’s concerns.

Poor handling of violence against Hindu minorities by Bangladesh government ( caretaker and not an elected one) is the main reason India has not acceded to holding any one to one meeting between Modi and Yunus.

India is a major U.S. partner in the Indo-Pacific region and Bangladesh pursues a balanced and neutral position on the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and China must use its weight to its own advantage.

Yunus’s recent comments while wooing investors in China, drew India’s attention as he declared Bangladesh as guardian of the ocean in the region and pointed out to a window of opportunity for China as India’s North-Eastern states, Bhutan and Nepal have their nearest access to the sea through Bangladesh. This amounted to Bangladesh facilitating China encircling India.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Col Rajesh Bhukar, The writer is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow