RED SEA CRISIS IMPINGE ON INDIA’S ECONOMIC AND SECURITY INTERESTS

Houthis, a Zaydi Shiite movement has been fighting Yemen’s Sunni-majority government since 2004. In 2014, fighting broke out in Yemen between the internationally recognised government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi (backed militarily by a Saudi-led coalition from 2015) and the Houthis (an Iran - aligned Yemen group). The Houthis took over the Yemeni capital Sanaa in September 2014 and seized control over much of north Yemen by 2016. Yemen is now divided between the Houthis in the north and the internationally recognised Government, which controls much of the south and east of the country. In April, 2022, Hadi handed power to a Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) under pressure from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but the Houthis do not recognise the PLC government.

After months of bilateral talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia backed PLC government to end the conflict, in December 2023 the United Nations Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg announced that both the warring factions have agreed for a nationwide ceasefire. The situation has improved in Yemen but amid all this on 19 October 2023, Yemen’s Houthi movement initiated a series of attacks, targeting Southern Israel and the ships in the Red Sea that it claimed were linked to Israel. This triggered Red Sea Crisis, the main reasons behind this was Iran’s tacit support to the Houthis to align with Hamas, Houthis wanting to divert attention of local people from poor governance in Northern part and regain upper hand vis a vis other stakeholder in the peace process in Yemen. The Houthis’ attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea and the subsequent responses by Israel, the US and UK overshadowed the progress made in establishing peace in Yemen and Middle East Region.

The Red Sea crisis has turned the quickest marine route linking Asia with Europe through the Suez Canal unsafe and has forced freighters to take a longer transit around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa’s southern tip, making shipments both dearer and longer to deliver. It has disrupted key shipping routes, eroding slack in supply networks and increasing the likelihood of inflationary bottlenecks and further compounded the woes of global trade as it emerges from the aftermath of the pandemic, feels the heat of the RussiaUkraine war, Israel - Hamas conflict and grapples with a global economic slowdown. In a setting of escalating conflicts, energy supplies could also be substantially disrupted, leading to a spike in energy prices. This would have significant spill overs to other commodity prices and heighten geopolitical and economic uncertainty, which in turn could dampen investment and lead to a further weakening of growth.

Two major players who are crucial to Red Sea Crisis, Saudi Arabia and UAE hold diverging visions on Red Sea security. Saudi Arabia is opposed to US military strikes against the Houthis, whereas, UAE advocates for a designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), while fostering US military intervention to solve the Red Sea crisis. The Houthis are likely to capitalize on attacks in the Red Sea and may persist with attacks in the Red Sea until a ceasefire allows humanitarian aid in Palestine, all the while seeking to secure a peace deal with Saudi Arabia. Overall, they might try to establish a balance of ‘controlled deterrence’ to avoid further international retaliation, while responding to direct US attacks with targeted operations.

The Gulf countries share a common goal of countering Iranian influence in the Red Sea with Israel and the US. Until now, Tehran’s involvement in the Red Sea has been mostly indirect, providing political and material support to the Houthis. Nonetheless, the US and Israel see Iran as being deeply involved in planning and enabling attacks on commercial shipping. The US presents itself as a guarantor of freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and faces the challenge of containing Houthi threats while safeguarding the peace deal in Yemen and avoiding a regional escalation. The US might consider listing the Houthi group as full-fledged FTO.

Security Concerns: Due to the importance of the Red Sea shipping channel, the Red Sea crisis has risen to a global security threat, causing a serious impact on international shipping and global supply chain security.

Economic Concerns: The Red Sea crisis will lead to higher energy prices and higher inflation, which will have a greater negative impact on world economic growth.

Violation of International Laws: Russia and China charged that the U.S. and British strikes violated international law, however, the US and UK defended the legality of strikes they launched against Yemen’s Houthis.

Increasing Threat to Human Lives: In addition to existing Israel-Palestine challenges, the continued Houthi threats to maritime navigation coupled with the risk of further military escalation could potentially impact millions in Yemen, the Red Sea region and the world at large.

Impact on India’s economic and security interests.

India’s both imports and exports have become costlier and need a better inventory management to avoids any crisis.

India heavily depends on oil imports, and any significant price increase could adversely affect its economy and may lead to energy crisis.

The safety of the Indian diaspora residing in the conflict zone becomes a priority. India may need to undertake evacuation operations to ensure the wellbeing of its citizens.

Security of Merchant Vessels may warrant more actions like recent one where a guided missile destroyer of the Indian Navy intercepted a cargo vessel with 22 crew members, including nine Indians when a ship came under a drone strike in the Gulf of Aden.

Better coordination and functioning of interministerial group comprising reps from ministries of defence, shipping and external affairs to monitor the crisis in the Red Sea.

Countries like India, Italy and France have sent ships to the region on their own initiative, distancing themselves from the U.S. umbrella.

In response to the escalating Middle East crisis, India should proactively engage with all stakeholders, including Iran, the USA, and regional powers. Through diplomatic channels, India must advocate for de-escalation, dialogue, and a collective effort to address the root causes.

The Path Forward: The Red Sea Crisis is a chain reaction to the PalestinianIsraeli conflict and is evolving into a global security and economic challenge. Need efforts to promote ceasefire between Palestine and Israel and cessation of military attacks from either side in the region.

The need of ensuring the safety of seafarers, the freedom of navigation and the stability of supply chains is the most critical need of hour to obviate global economic crisis.

Acknowledge the rising influence of non-state militant actors in the geopolitical landscape and develop strategies neutralise their impact on regional stability.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Col Rajesh Bhukar The writer is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow [email protected]