Escalation of Iran-Israel conflict and India’s stakes

Iran - Israel proxy conflict was almost on brink of a military collision as Iran launched hundreds of drones and cruise missiles towards Israel in response to the strike in Iranian diplomatic building in Syrian capital of Damascus on April 1, 2024 which killed a senior member of the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards, and eight other officers. The situation has worsened with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas by Israel while he was in Tehran attending the swearing-in ceremony of newly elected Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian. Iran has blamed Israel for the assassination and has threatened to take revenge. Israel has also stepped its defence preparations and trying to rope in the US against any direct attack by Iran or combined with the Hezbollah. In latest move the US has ordered its guided-missile submarine USS Georgia to the Middle East and the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to speed up its voyage to the region. Iran and Israel have emerged from being friends to foes. The bitter hostility that prevails between the two nations did not exist until the Iranian revolution in 1979. The relationship has been on a downhill, from Cooperation to Conflict.

India has so far maintained a balanced approach on Hamas-Israel conflict as India has historical relations with Palestine and also has close ties with Israel. India has condemned Hamas attacks on Israel in Oct 2023, but did not support Israeli retaliatory action killing thousands of civilians and innocent people in the Gaza and Palestine. The direct entry of Hezbollah and Iran in the conflict has made things more complicated. The world is almost divided as pro and against Israel, with the US, and West with Israel and Russia, China and many Islamic countries with Hamas/ Iran. Though Russia and China haven’t been so vociferous in their pro Iranian stance but the US and the West have seen Iranian entry as a direct threat to the security of the region. India’s silence for another day on rising tensions between Iran and Israel over the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh reflects its dilemma in trying to balance ties with both countries.

Till the military confrontation remained restricted to Israel and Hamas clashes in the Gaza Strip, there were fewer worries about the regional implications of this conflict. But, the dynamics have changed with Iran’s increasing rhetoric and actions vis-à-vis Israel response. The regional security situation has deteriorated severely post assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and this has raised the prospects for an all-out war between Iran and Israel. The escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict has put India’s stakes in the West Asian region in danger. The region is witnessing intense war like preparations from both sides but the biggest suspense about the timings and methodology of Iranian action or retaliatory strike by Israel still keeps the environment guessing. India has expressed serious concern at the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, and has called for immediate deescalation of the conflict.

INDIA’S STAKES LIKELY TO BE ENDANGERED IN CASE IRAN - ISRAEL CONFLICT ESCALATES

Lives and livelihoods of the large Indian Diaspora in West Asia, approx 18,000 Indians in Israel, 10,000 Indians in Iran, and around 9 million people Indians in the Gulf and Other West Asian region will be adversely affected. Escalation of conflict will require their immediate evacuation.

Disruption of India’s energy security (supply and prices) as this region contributes 80 % of oil supplies. A surge in oil prices would impact India’s economic growth, drive up inflationary pressures, and disrupt the balance of trade. Progress made on the IndiaMiddle-East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) will be derailed thus impacting India’s strategic as well as economic benefits.

The balance of Indian strategic ties both with Iran and Israel will be severely affected. It would be difficult for India to maintain an ambivalent position in case of further worsening of conflict.

India and Israel have significant trading partnership and Israel is a key defence equipment supplier. Both countries have now moved to bigger cooperation in energy, space and science and technology sectors. Israel has stood with India during crucial time of Kargil conflict and supports India on major global fora.

Iran has been one of the major suppliers of crude oil to India and both countries have shared concerns on terrorism emanating from Pakistan / Afghanistan. The Chabahar port of Iran developed by India is a strategic economic project, which acts as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia. The only hiccup is that to Iran - India is a friend but Pakistan is like a brother.

The fast-changing geopolitical landscape of the world has left limited choices even for the nations that are not directly involved in the conflicts around the world. For India, it is a huge challenge to remain unaffected or neutral in the conflicts in Ukraine and Middle - East wherein, both sides are friends and have strategic relations with India. The emerging Israel-Iran conflict has put India on a bigger test of resilience in multiple domains be it political, diplomatic, economic or security.

The current situation of India’s neighbourhood is not so conducive as China and Pakistan continue create problems, the ongoing crisis in Myanmar and Bangladesh, diplomatic irritants with Maldives makes it imperative for India to avoid making choices for either side specially in the Middle East crisis. At best India can proactively engage with the US, Russia, Iran and Israel to ensure that this conflict is contained.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Col Rajesh Bhukar The writer is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow