CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR INDIA

One of the biggest achievements of former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been the impressive economic progress over the last decade or so. During her tenure from 2009-2024, Bangladesh’s economy had grown at an average rate of 6.3 per cent per annum, which is among the highest in the world. Indo- Bangladesh relations and bonding has emerged stronger during last fifteen years regime of Sheik Hasina and both countries have become close trading partners. However, two issues have remained a reason of political and public divide and a reason of discord and dissent in Bangladesh since its independence from Pakistan in 1971. These are inclusion of word Secular in constitution by Awami League government and declaration of Islam as state religion by the BNP and Jamaat led governments. There is also a clear divide of public opinions on role of India in formation of Bangladesh. These two reasons in the backdrop and the Hasina’s government’s new policy for reservation for freedom fighters families (primarily Awami League supporters) have triggered the latest protests. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has fled amidst escalating violent protests over the job quota leading to major turmoil in the country that has made India’s neighbourhood vulnerable to security risks. The army took over control of the country and put an interim government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus in place comprising civil-society representatives, two student leaders of the protestors and reps from all major political parties sans Awami League. At this stage the primary concern is the rise of extremist groups and the potential for increased terrorism and insurgency, the possibility of refugee influxes and the associated social and economic challenges. The turmoil in Bangladesh has led to significant disruptions in trade and supply chains, particularly affecting the textile sector.

Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami supremo Shafiqur Rahman favours harmonious and stable ties with India with expectations of non interference in their internal affairs. The first telephonic call in the backdrop of turmoil in Bangladesh between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Chief Adviser of the new interim government of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, have been very reassuring on safety and security of the “Hindus and all other minority communities” in Bangladesh. His assertion that all citizens of the ‘new’ Bangladesh will have equal rights is definitely a positive development. Even the Awami League (AL) arch rival Bangladesh National Party (BNP) has expressed its willingness to have strong ties with its next-door neighbour India, though their top leaders feel that New Delhi “failed to understand the pulse of the people of Bangladesh” and had “put all its eggs in one basket” by supporting one party and family in the country in an apparent reference to Hasina and her party, AL. Senior BNP leader urges India to take a relook at its relations with Bangladesh sans Sheikh Hasina. The growing cold war between the U.S. and China has now reached the shores of Bangladesh. The pulls and pushes of global geopolitics will make domestic reforms and peaceful change more complicated for Bangladesh. Bangladesh is indeed in a delicate geopolitical quagmire, and it needs a delicately crafted foreign policy to navigate to safe harbors.

SIGNIFICANCE OF BANGLADESH FOR INDIA

The country acts as an important corridor for trade and transportation, linking India’s Northeast with the rest of the country and facilitating access to international markets.

Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia and India is the second largest trade partner of Bangladesh in Asia A stable and friendly Bangladesh is crucial for regional security. Cooperation on counter-terrorism and other security matters is essential for peace. Active collaboration between India and Bangladesh is vital for the success of regional forums like BIMSTEC and SAARC.

MAJOR CHALLENGES FOR INDIA

The nature of the new government, whether it is led by opposition parties or the military will significantly impact India’s strategic interests.

A less friendly administration could revive antiIndia militant groups, intensifying border tensions. Rising Islamist extremism could increase risks for Hindu minorities. India must manage citizenship promises for Hindu refugees to avoid regional tensions. The political instability in Bangladesh could provide an opportunity for China to expand its influence in the region as Beijing might offer lucrative deals to the new regime.

India’s backing of Hasina has created friction with Western allies, specifically the US who have criticised her undemocratic practices .Anti-Bangladesh rhetoric in India and vice versa could hinder relations if not addressed. Bangladesh’s turmoil adds to India’s challenges, including tensions with Pakistan, instability in Myanmar, strained relations with Nepal, the Taliban’s control in Afghanistan, and the Maldives’ anti-India stance.

MOVING FORWARD

The major challenge will be avoiding entanglement in internal disputes while maintaining a strong diplomatic presence in Bangladesh, building new alliances with political factions and society, and moving beyond the 1971 liberation narrative. Bolster security along the border and in areas with large Bangladeshi expatriate populations to manage potential spillover effects and maintain stability. Evaluate a Free Trade Agreement and digital connectivity corridor to boost bilateral trade. Leverage strong relations with Gulf countries to support Bangladesh’s economy and regional stability. Collaborate with international partners, including the US, UK, and European nations, to counter increased ChinaPakistan influence in Bangladesh. India is shifting from non-alignment to focus on national interests and strengthen ties with the US and Japan. Success hinges on maintaining good relations with neighbours, with potential support for Bangladesh again in 2024, as in 1971.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Col Rajesh Bhukar The writer is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow [email protected]