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12% voters decide mandate in Rajasthan

Jaipur: A surprising trend emerges in Rajasthan where a mere 12% of voters can significantly sway the electoral landscape, propelling one party to a resounding victory while relegating the other to the sidelines.

Analyzing data from six assembly elections spanning 1993 to 2018, the pattern becomes evident. The focus is on how a slight difference in vote percentage can translate into a substantial shift in political fortunes.

In the 1993 elections, BJP secured 38.60% of the votes, claiming 95 seats, forming the government despite a narrow margin of 0.33% over Congress, which garnered 38.27%. A similar scenario unfolded in 2018, with Congress winning 100 seats with 39.30% votes, just 0.53% more than BJP, which secured 73 seats. In 2008, Congress garnered 2.55% more votes than BJP, securing 96 seats compared to BJP’s 78. Conversely, in 2003, BJP obtained 3.55% more votes than Congress, winning a clear majority with 120 seats.

Examining specific elections further reinforces the impact of this swing. In 1998, Congress secured an overwhelming 153 seats with 44.95% votes, surpassing BJP’s 33.23%, which only garnered 33 seats. A similar scenario played out in 2013, with BJP securing 163 seats with 45.17% votes, leaving Congress with a mere 33.07% and 21 seats.

This data-driven analysis highlights the significant role played by this 12% swing in votes, often termed as “destiny makers.” The trend indicates that if this crucial voter segment decisively supports one party, it can lead to a landslide victory

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