UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR WORSENING SITUATION

Russia’s broad interests in Ukraine: Russia has deep cultural, economic, and political bonds with Ukraine that go back centuries with approximately more than ten million ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. Ukraine going NATO or Western orbit way is viewed as a security threat to Russia as well as its standing as a great power. The city of Sevastopol is home port for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the dominant maritime force in the region and any loss of control over it is detrimental to Russian strategic interests. Russia and Ukraine have been largest trading partners with Russia having relied on Ukrainian pipelines to pump its gas to customers in Central and Eastern Europe for decades, and it paid Kyiv billions of dollars per year in transit fees. Russia was keen to preserve its political influence in Ukraine but the current President Zelenskyy definitely isn’t the right man. The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has been ongoing since February 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists. The conflict escalated on 24 Feb 2022 when Russian President Putin sent troops into Ukraine from the north, south and east claiming to “demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine. In reality it was framed as an attempt at ensuring neutral status and preventing NATO from gaining a foothold in Ukraine.

Current situation and Impact: After months of war, both armies are exhausted and depleted. The continual attrition has taken a toll on men and equipment, even though Ukraine has received aid and trained reservists to make up their losses and Russia’s partial military mobilization would make another 2,00,000 or so conscripts available to fill their tired and ragged lines. The civil population is suffering with Millions of civilians unable to return home. Many still in the country are forced to live without access to food, water, health care, and other essential supplies. With Over 17,000 causalities, including 6,500 killed and 6.5 million people internally displaced, the war is getting heinous. Increasing food and fuel prices have an immediate impact on the poorest people in developing countries, causing hunger and suffering for families. Ukraine is historically a large exporter of grain and the current war is increasing food insecurity and contributing to the risk of famine in the world.

Some possibilities in the current scenario with implications: With winter setting in and then the melting snow and slushy ground of spring a pause can be expected around December or so till March. Both sides may like to make maximum gains and perhaps even bring the war to a conclusion before that but it seems difficult to predict the timelines or even the manner in which the war could end. The war is swinging between extremities with no clear evidence where it’s heading. But some of the likely possibilities are: - Russians launch a renewed offensive with 200,000 recently mobilized conscripts to attain their military aims and regain the territory lost to Ukrainian counter-attacks have pushed them back from some of the occupied territories. They could even push ahead in the south towards Odesa, the one vital port on the Black Sea which the Ukrainians still hold. The likelihood of a renewed Russian offensive is high, though one cannot predict the gains it could make, or in what time frame. A successful Ukrainian counter offensive aided by NATO (an additional $400 million in military aid by US including refurbishing 45 T-72 tanks and missiles for HAWK air defence systems for Kyiv) pushing the Russians back to their own territory. The Ukrainian offensive has made sizeable gains both in the east and in the south. Buoyed by their success, and replenished with western arms and freshly trained reservists, the Ukrainians could continue their offensive to recapture the lost territory. A complete Ukrainian victory, in the near term, at least, could be difficult. Another possibility is that the war becomes an interminable frozen conflict, with neither side being able to change the status quo. Both sides dig in along the positions they hold which becomes the Line of Contact. There could be a stalemate along the line held by Russian and Ukrainian troops along which low intensity fighting could continue interminably. Ukraine may not like it, but would be unable to change the overall picture.

In another possibility of worst case scenario is a NATO - Russian conflict wherein in the fog of the war crossing of a “Red Line” which could be the use of a chemical, biological or a nuclear weapon, or maybe even a particularly devastating attack on a civilian target could draw NATO into the conflict. A more pragmatic view suggests NATO will continue to prop up Ukraine with infusions of arms and aid, which will keep the conflict going. After all, this state suits them where they can continue to weaken Russia “to the last Ukrainian” without being directly involved. Neither does Russia want a direct confrontation with NATO - one in which they may lose. This scenario may be seriously viewed by both sides but the last G- 20 Summit where the world leaders including China have stressed “the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible” makes the chances of this scenario dim.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

COL RAJESH BHUKAR  The author is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defense Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow