THREAT TO INDIA’S FINANCIAL CAPITAL EDGES CLOSER

Ever thought about that sinking feeling? Imagine this. You are lounging in your lavish home on the Mumbai sea face, enjoying the view of the sea on a monsoon morning. Suddenly, the waves swell and start getting dangerously close to the streets, surpassing the tripods. Before you know, its crashing on the streets, and now its near your doorway. As you sit up and take notice of your beautiful morning turning into an imminently fatal painting, things start getting worse. Reads just like one of those movies like ‘2012’, right? However, this is not fiction. As Mumbai grapples with its unprecedented population burst, it has stood out as a severely threatened city along the western coast of India. Why?

The bulk of the coastal zones around the financial capital have witnessed the highest amount of erosion as revealed after the Union Environment Ministry presented stunning statistics on ecological challenges impacting India’s coastal regions before the Rajya Sabha earlier this month. The National Centre for Sustainable Coastal Management, Chennai had undertaken shoreline change studies using satellite data from the past 38 years, identifying locations badly impacted by erosion. In Mumbai, the coastline along the Mahul village towards the eastern suburbs shrunk by 146.16 metres (the most for any location across Maharashtra).

SHRINKING SPACES BY 2050 IN MUMBAI Taking it a step further, increased erosion puts infrastructure in jeopardy, and when paired with the prospect of rising sea levels, it becomes much more so. According to a study conducted by Noidabased IT consulting firm RMSI (based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports) for six major coastal cities in India, by 2050, a large portion of the people, property, and infrastructure would be at risk of submersion due to rising sea levels. Rising sea levels may drown portions of Mumbai’s essential road and infrastructure by 2050, including parts of the Western Express Highway, the Bandra-Worli Sea-Link, and the Mumbai Coastal Road Phases I and II, which are currently being developed.

THE CRZ CONUNDRUM The Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) notice was issued by the Ministry of Environment and Forests in 1991 under the Environmental Protection Act, 1986, to regulate activities in India’s coastal zones. The legislation has been revised multiple times since then, most recently with the CRZ 2019 notification. As highlighted by Mumbai-based group Conservation Action Trust, CZMP maps for Mumbai city and suburbs produced recently failed to include all CRZ IA categories, and there is no distinction between mangroves and mudflats.

RESTRICT CONSTRUCTION IN MUMBAI’S LOW-LYING AREAS Low-lying locations, in comparison to high places, would see a direct and immediate impact, according to RMSI’s research. Building in Mumbai’s low-lying regions should be suspended immediately, according to the MCAP, launched in March this year, to limit the risk of erosion and sea-level rise. In addition, the plan, over the next eight years, calls for improving data monitoring and consistency to close gaps in local weather forecasting and tidal changes for sealevel rise, planning and implementing climate-proofing infrastructure, and, most importantly, empowering vulnerable communities to better understand and integrate early warning systems.

THREE-PRONGED APPROACH NEEDED BEFORE ITS TOO LATE In view of the increased sealevel rise projections for 2050, RMSI has proposed that the Centre launch a project to create a new shoreline, inundation mapping, and disaster preparedness throughout the whole Indian coastline. All locations to the left of the new coastline (towards the ocean), whether residential, industrial, or infrastructural, must be moved once the new coastline mapping is ready. All the data should be included in a Decision Support System (DSS) to assist planners in relocating assets to the left of the new shoreline, planning new buildings in light of the latest flood risk maps, and determining plinth levels,basements, and other issues. This DSS will also help predict the dangers of heavy rains and cyclones. In addition, all rivers and streams should have their water levels modelled, and locations at risk of permanent submergence marked. With this new reality, inundation mapping for Mumbai and other cities in danger from increasing sea levels becomes a top concern