THE WEST SEEKS INDIAN MEDIATION IN THE UKRAINE CRISIS

With no immediate solution despite the high-level negotiations between the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and the Russian Foreign Minister,Sergey Lavorov, the Russian- Ukrainian standoff on the borders has caused worldwide concern.

Earlier, India, though having close relations with Ukraine and Russia, has decided to remain neutral on the ongoing crisis.

India is quite aware of the western policy that NATO has violated its earlier promise that it would not use Ukraine as a NATO’s Trojan Horse to undermine Russia’s strategic interests in the region.

The sudden resignation of the German Navy Chief, KayAchim Schoenbach, who has expressed reservation about the anti-Russian policy also indicates that NATO is divided on this issue.

Earlier, he had told an interactive session of a defence think tank in New Delhi, that the west, including Germany, and India need Russia to counter China in the geo-politics.

It caused uproar among the NATO powers finally forcing him to quit, but he did not withdraw his comment. India’s cool response to mediate us natural, because a similar suggestion from the European Union had received an aggressive response from Russia.

Interestingly, if the US President, Joe Biden, decides to dump the advice of the former US Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brezeninski, that a stable Ukraine as “counterweight” to Russia, the NATO-Russian confrontation can end.

The Russian are keen to have a European identity.the western powers are keen to lure Ukraine to their camp for ending the Russia influence in the Eurasian region.

However, in his new aggressive ‘avtar’ the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is taking no chances, and has been following the Primkov Doctrine. Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov, a former prime minister, had scripted the doctrine.

He was convinced that the western powers would never adjust Russia in Europe or NATO. It means that both Biden and the Russian President Vladimir Putin have to unshackle the past.

The USA cannot afford another protracted war. These two world powers have to reinvent their strategies, especially when China has emerged as the economic Superpower. In the next two decades, it might also surpass both the USA and Russia in military might.

The outcome of the conflict may embolden the Chinese President, XI Jinping, for bigger roles in the geo-politics. The first agenda in the ongoing US-Russian talks is that the NATO powers would not provoke Ukraine to cancel the lease of the warm water port, Sevastopol.

It was renewed in 2010 allowing Russia to deploy it’s Black Sea fleet till 2042.

It appears that he has adopted the Primkov Doctrine that Russia must form an alliance with China and India for playing a decisive role in geo-politics.

However, the USA has already faded that the new triangular Superpowers comprising the USA, China and Russia have emerged on the global horizon.

The American invincibility became much more pronounced during the past two years (2020-21), when the Covid-19 pandemic hit the world.

It, however, was not expected that this decline would snow-ball in to a ‘pathetic’ surrender of the USled western powers in Afghanistan on August 15, 2021. In the new triangular play of geo-politics, Russia is keen to have a three-power alliance comprising Russia, India and China (RIC) for strategic and economic stability. It is a part of the Primakov Doctrine.

The growing understanding between Russia and India might soon rope in China. The RIC is expected to materialize, especially following the growing Russian assertion in Central Asia.

The Chinese decision not to claim Vlodistok, the Russian port in the fareast, and the withdrawal of its comment against the the Russian forces in Kazakhstan are indicative of the new situation.

The Chinese newspaper, Global Times, which had criticized the Russian action in Kazakhstan not only withdrew it’s comment, it also tendered apology The American penetration in the region, which once belonged to the USSR is not acceptable to Putin.

Meanwhile, the Russian’s strategy has been to implement the Primkov Doctrine. The trust being built during the era of US President Barack Obama has been lost.

Do the Americans have a counter strategy? It’s profit-crazy business corporates have amassed wealth by using cheap efficient labourers of China, which is the world’s industrial hub.

Biden under the pressure of the big business is unable to have a long-term perspective accompanied by well-defined goals.

It is doubtful whether he would be able to delink the priorities of the with those of it’s military-industrial establishment. Therefore, the Indian reluctance in playing the role of a mediator is natural.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL