RECENT BYPOLL RESULTS: OPPOSITION LOSING GRIP?

The recent outcome of the bypolls across the nation have once again shown that the Opposition had not only got its act together and even as individual Opposition parties and as far as these elections were concerned, the poor show only reveal the dismal state of affairs especially on Ground Zero.
Lackadaisical attitude of leaders, disillusionment of party workers, over confidence and lack of organisational hub… all these are main reasons behind the dismal showing of the Opposition.

Even after 100 days of the crucial Assembly elections to five states where the BJP may have won in four… but the Opposition had, on account of vote share, improved their status… However, all these are now a thing of the past, especially post these election results!

The AAP may have come to power in February 2022 assembly polls with a landslide victory winning 92 of the total 117 seats and it had also represented the Sangrur Lok Sabha seat since 2014 (Bhagwant Mann), but with this drubbing, the AAP lost its representation in LS.

Voters’ rejection of AAP within 100 days of its rule in the state has surprised one and all. The disillusionment of the voters was evident with a very low (45.3%) turnout.
As per insiders and several newspaper reports, the issue of Delhi’s remote control over the party in the state and the sensational murder of singer Sidhu Moosewala had also put the party in poor light even as AAP continued its tirade against corruption.
People of the state are already feeling that Bhagwant Mann’s government may not be run by those they had elected three months ago. Even the leaders reportedly feel less important. It is alleged that the rank and file do not have much say in local governance and even AAP’s ministers and MLAs seem to have been sidelined. A look back would reveal the way the February 2022 campaign was conducted with supremo Arvind Kejriwal as the trump card!

UTTAR PRADESH
BJP candidates swept the bypolls. They wrested both the crucial and prestigious Azamgarh and Rampur from the Samajwadi Party which were once the Yadavs’ bastion.
While BJP toiled hard for its candidates in both the seats during pre-poll campaigning, the Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav did not even bother to pay a single visit. On the last day of campaigning, Akhilesh instead chose to visit Kannauj instead of going to Rampur or Azamgarh. Akhilesh had won Azamgarh seat in 2019 elections and vacated it in March 2022 after he won the Assembly polls. SP Chief had fielded cousin Dharmendra Yadav in Azamgarh. Even during the 2014 and 2017 elections and at the height of the Modi wave, Samajwadi managed to win this seat.

TRIPURA
BJP won in three out of four seats while the Congress won one seat. Tripura chief minister and BJP leader Manik Saha won the Assembly poll from the Town Bardowali constituency by a margin of 6,104 votes. The bypolls were crucial for Saha who replaced Biplab Kumar Deb recently. Saha fought his first-ever direct election to save his CM’s seat.

WHAT AILS THE TMC?
TMC’s failure to win a single seat in the Tripura bypolls is actually not surprising going by the way things are.
In the four seats which went to polls, TMC received 2.1%, 2.98%, 3.3% and 2.96% vote share.
The party’s state unit chief Subal Bhowmik admitted that “organizational weakness” and “issues of continuity” were key factors that led to the dismal show. TMC made the same mistakes in Tripura which BJP did in Bengal during the 2021 Assembly elections.
Before Subal Bhowmick was made TMC’s state unit president, party affairs in Tripura were mainly managed by West Bengal leaders. First, Sushmita Dev was given the task to beef up party units in Assam and Tripura. Tripura was later given to Rajib Banerjee. Dev hails from Assam and Banerjee from Bengal... hence notice the subsequent results… both failed to build a proper organization even in the Bengalispeaking pockets.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

ROBIN ROY The writer is Senior Associate Editor, Free Press Journal, Mumbai and former Managing Editor, First India