MINE BLOWING: SOREN STARING AT CRISIS, WILL HIS GOVT SURVIVE?

Even as the political crisis in Jharkhand has deepened due to the uncertainty over Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s fate as an MLA, Soren and ruling legislators were seen leaving for an unknown destination on three buses. The three were occupied by the legislators of the ruling JMM-Congress-RJD coalition and escorted by security personnel. Grapevine has it that the legislators are being shifted to a “friendly state”, which could either be West Bengal or Chhattisgarh since both states have non-BJP governments. The development took place soon after a marathon third round of a meeting of legislators of the ruling alliance at CM Soren’s residence to chalk out a strategy to deal with the current crisis scenario. It is said that the ruling MLAs attended the meeting with their bags and baggage.

WHAT IS THE CASE AGAINST HEMANT SOREN?
Former CM of Jharkhand Raghubar Das had claimed in February, 2022 that (Hemant) Soren had misused his post and position and allocated a mining plot to himself. Das claimed it was corruption and conflict of interest. He also accused him of violating the Representation of People Act. Shivshankar Sharma, an RTI activist, had filed two PILs demanding CBI and ED probe into the Jharkhand mining scandal. Soren is also accused of having invested in shell companies. In May 2022, the poll panel had sent a notice to Soren seeking his side of the story. According to Article 192 of the Constitution, if any question arises as to whether a member of a House of the Legislature of a state has become subject to any of the disqualifications, the question shall be referred to the Governor whose decision shall be final. According to reports, the Chief Minister’s team argued with the poll panel that the clauses of the (election) law that he is accused of breaking do not apply in this particular case! “They argued for nearly two hours. Following which we gave our rejoinder and showed it is a matter of conflict of interest and there are a series of judgments of the Supreme Court which cover this (case),” BJP’s counsel Kumar Harsh told reporters after the Election Commission hearing on August 12. Hemant Soren, who is staring at a huge crisis in his political career and in the eventuality of his having to quit the CM’s office, is certain to challenge an adverse verdict by the EC in a court of law. It may be recalled that his party, the JMM, had romped to power in December 2019 by defeating the Raghubar Dasled BJP government. The ruling JMM-Congress-RJD alliance has 49 legislators (JMM 30, Congress 18 and RJD 1) in the 82-member state assembly (including a nominated Anglo-Indian member).

However, retaining a majority may not be a problem for the alliance government even if Soren and his MLA brother Basant Soren—who is too facing EC scrutiny for owning a mining lease—are finally disqualified from the House. There is, however, the possibility that three Congress MLAs, who were suspended by the party after their subsequent arrest with over Rs 49 lakh in cash in Kolkata in July, may choose to abstain or refuse to back Hemant Soren’s government. Even in such a situation, the ruling alliance will continue to enjoy a simple majority in the Jharkhand House. Such a situation, however, could be fraught with dangers for Soren as several theories may come into play. For instance, there could be some issues within the Soren Parivar as his (Soren’s) sister-in law Sita Soren, an MLA of the party had accused the government of failing to curb corruption. There is also speculation about some ruling alliance MLAs switching sides, which can eclipse the future of Soren government in a crunch situation. In any case, the hassle-free continuance of the alliance government or choosing a capable successor of Soren may become an uphill task. As per Plan B, the JMM has the option of continuing with Soren as the chief minister even if he gets disqualified since the Constitution allows a legislative assembly non-member to become or continue as CM for six months. The JMM can easily use this time-limit to try and get relief from the court. But this may become completely impossible in case Soren is barred from contesting polls and a judicial relief is unavailable within the crucial six months. In such a case, Soren will be forced to pick someone from his family—wife Kalpana, father or mother Rupi Soren—as a stopgap CM. Sources said letters of support for these prospective CM candidates have been taken from all JMM MLAs.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

ROBIN ROY The writer is Senior Journalist and former Managing Editor, First India