After Manipur jolt, will Nitish’s bid to form Oppn Mahajot work?

In a major jolt to Nitish Kumar, five of the six JD(U) MLAs in Manipur merged with the BJP on Friday. On Saturday, Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) stalwart Nitish Kumar who recently snapped ties with the saffron party said notwithstanding this hiccup, the scenario will be politically different in 2024 if the Opposition parties unite and put up a joint effort against the saffron might. After the JD(U) state executive meet, Nitish mentioned a series of events and said, “All the six Manipur JD(U) MLAs were scheduled to come for the meet and were ready till a couple of days ago, but suddenly the merger with the BJP happened.” Lambasting the BJP, Nitish Kumar raised questions on the conduct of BJP, “Is it the Constitutional way? They had all come to Bihar a few months ago. People are watching the behaviour of the BJP. What kind of an approach is this?” he asked. “This means they don’t want any Opposition.”

THE MANIPUR HUNGAMA
Five of the six JD(U) MLAs in Manipur joined the ruling BJP on Friday. The lone JDU MLA left in the state is Mohammad Nasir from Lilong seat. As per grapevine, he is also reportedly set to join the BJP. This is being corroborated by several political analysts. The political upheaval in Manipur is not the first of its kind. In 2020, six of the seven MLAs of the JD(U) legislators joined the BJP in Arunachal Pradesh. Last month, the seventh JD(U) MLA also joined the BJP. It may be recalled that while in August, Nitish Kumar had moved out of the NDA to join the Grand Alliance. His mega plan is to unite the Opposition parties across the country for the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha elections to pose a challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. How successful Nitish Kumar will be in his endeavour is a major point to be seen.

BJP MOCKS NITISH Taking a dig at Nitish Kumar, BJP’s Amit Malviya called the former a ‘lame duck chief minister’ and mocked him by saying that he still “dreams of being Prime Minister.” He wrote, “Mamata Banerjee’s attempts to gain acceptability beyond West Bengal, backfired miserably. Nitish Kumar, a lame duck Chief Minister, is seeing his party’s footprint shrink, not just in Bihar, where it is the third largest, but also outside.” Meanwhile, amid speculations over his projection as the Prime Ministerial candidate in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar slammed BJP leader Sushil Modi, saying “no one takes him seriously.” Kumar was referring to Sushil Kumar Modi’s recent remarks that the meeting of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his Telangana counterpart K Chandrashekar Rao was the “latest comedy show of Opposition unity”. In Lok Sabha, JD(U) has only 16 seats out of the total 543 while it has only 5 MPs in the 245-member Rajya Sabha. JD(U) is currently in power only in Bihar among the 31 states and Union Territories. In the state, Kumar formed the government with the help of Lalu Yadav’s party RJD. It may be noted that RJD has 79 MLAs while JD(U) has only 45 legislatures. The numbers, however, do not seem to be in favour in Parliament and Bihar Assembly for Nitish Kumar’s ambition!

TEJASHWI WAS THE TOP CHOICE
Despite having fewer seats in Bihar Assembly than RJD, Nitish Kumar managed to wrest the CM’s post in Bihar. Notably, Tejashwi Yadav was projected to be the top choice for becoming the new CM of Bihar after he had joined hands with Kumar. In the survey, conducted by India Today in association with C-Voter in Bihar, Tejashwi bagged 43% votes against 24% for Nitish Kumar.

LONG TO-DO LIST IN DELHI
Nitish Kumar, who came to Delhi with a longish “to-do” list for his ‘Mission Opposition’, checked off the first item Monday evening, meeting Congress’ Rahul Gandhi at his Tughlaq Road residence. Nitish, however, told reporters that he had no ambition for the top post. “There is a concerted effort to weaken regional parties. My effort is to unite the Opposition ahead of the general elections. I have no intention of pitching myself as a prime ministerial candidate,” Kumar told reporters. While Kumar had said that he hoped to meet Opposition leaders for the Mahagathbandhan alliance in Delhi, he has also declared that the visit is meant to bring all the opposition leaders under one umbrella – which is undoubtedly a highly challenging task. On his “wish-list”, Nitish is supposed to meet the Aam Aadmi Party chief and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Efforts to rope him into the Opposition front were botched in 2019, with AAP’s role in ending the UPA government at the Centre weighing heavily on the Congress. Nitish is also supposed to meet HD Kumaraswamy — the chief of the Janata Dal Secular, who ended the alliance with the Congress after their government in Karnataka fell through. It may be recalled that the formation of the CongressJDS alliance in 2018 to keep the BJP out of power in Karnataka had marked the efforts to form the opposition front. Nitish, according to political grapevine, is also likely to meet Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar, who was the prime mover in the efforts to unite the Opposition in 2019; Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, another leader seen as upset with the Congress; and the leaders of the Left which is providing outside support to his government in Bihar.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

ROBIN ROY The writer is Senior Journalist and former Managing Editor, First India