STARMER AND THE TWO-FRONT WAR

War and British Prime Ministers have had quite a history. Wars have made some of them icons and reduced the iconic stature of others.

Think Winston Churchill and the words ‘Wartime Hero’ fill your mind, his leadership during the war is still the gold standard for British “wartime greatness” and has given the temperamental PM unparalleled following across Britain.

Think Thatcher and Falkland war comes up. The ten-week war in 1982 with Argentina transformed her image into a national hero from being one of the most unpopular PM of times. The victory gave her the much-required political legitimacy to hand her a landslide re-election in 1983.

Whereas for Tony Blair ushering in New Labour to power after 17 years of conservative rule is best remembered for taking the country to war in Iraq by allying with the United States of America.

The misadventure cost him his reputation that despite his three election victories and domestic reforms, he stays deeply unpopular with large segments of the public specifically due to his decision to go to war.

Now, Sir Kier Starmer finds himself in a tight spot. Over the last four weeks he and UK’s old ally US President have had not so friendly exchange. Trump has publicly called out Starmer for Britain’s delayed response to USA’s call for using UK’s airbase Diego Garcia, he even went as far as posting a spoof skit from Saturday Night Live, UK mocking Starmer.

Despite all the pressures and mocking, Starmer has firmly said that he will not be actively taking UK to war. In a tweet he wrote, “I will always make decisions that are in national interest. It is why we aren’t getting dragged into the Middle East conflict, and why we are fighting to protect your living standards. And while opposing parties have responded by dividing communities, we respond with hope and pride.”

In a long time, he has acted with some authority. Despite pressure, he held his ground in the early weeks of the war. YouGov poll suggests that 59 percent of voters are opposing the idea of Britain going to war, Starmer response has been measured and coordinated with larger sentiment.

How will this decision shape Starmer’s legacy remains to be seen as he faces challenges back home.

Two uphill tasks at his hand are economic recovery and managing the unpredictable, loudmouth ally across the Atlantic in the Oval Office.

Let us look at the economy. Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, have staked their political futures on delivering enough growth to repair public finances and reduce the cost of living.

The war may already have dashed those hopes for 2026. The Bank of England chose not to cut interest rates in March, as had been widely expected, citing the economic uncertainty caused by the conflict. Energy bills, mortgage costs, petrol prices, and food prices are all rising. The concern for Starmer and the chancellor is that conditions may deteriorate further as the war drags on — a situation largely beyond their control that could deal a serious blow to their electoral prospects.

Amidst all this he has vowed at a public rally campaigning for the labour that the energy bills will go down by GBP 100 for each family irrespective of the way war goes. As per The Times report the government is a making a windfall of 20 million pounds owing to increased prices. The income is appreciated, but how will the government spend it and ease pressure on public remains to be seen.

The second task for Starmer is Trump. One of his few notable achievements in office so far — has been keeping strong relations with Trump. However, Trump with his outburst on Truth Social threatens this partnership with each passing post.

As I am writing this, the US president has posted on Truth social, “All those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you, no.1 buy it for the US, we have plenty and number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait and just TAKE IT.”

And it is not the Iran war, strains were already appearing before the conflict, particularly when London sided with Denmark over the White House’s public threats to seize Greenland.

Tensions have since worsened by Iran. Starmer has tried to tread a careful line, aiming to uphold Britain’s alliance commitments without becoming directly entangled in the conflict. This has involved a series of gradual concessions: initially denying the United States access to British bases, before later permitting their use to defend allies against Iranian retaliation.

With outcome of local elections due on May 7, it is a tough road ahead for Starmer. But as a commentator at a Central London club puts it, “Come what may Starmer’s position at No.10 is secure, for no one wants to take over a sinking ship.” Will the premier be able to defy the odds would decide his legacy.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Avinash Kalla, The writer is Foreign Correspondent First India News