POST OP SINDOOR Rising China Threat, India’s Strategy

The emerging Sino-Indian relations has major implications on shaping the world geopolitical scenario, yet how China perceives India more as a competitor or threat has not been really explored. Whereas most literature on this relationship has observed an asymmetric threat perception between the two states, with India identifying a greater threat from China than the other way around, but the changing dynamics of international geo-politics, India’s successful Op Sindoor, growing proximity with the US and retaining balanced relations with Russia, assertion in global fora, India emerging as voice of South along with phenomenal rise in economic growth and critical role of India in current US vs Rest of the world tariff war has made China more cautious about its growing global stature, secure neighbourhood and finding India as a bigger threat. As a result, the level of threat perception is becoming more balanced and symmetrical. This shift in perception will have major implications for the overall dynamics of bilateral relations and more likely to shift the relationship from competition to confrontational and conflictual and China emerging as a bigger threat than ever so far.

India’s fast-growing economy, demographic dividend, geographic position, and growing strategic partnerships have made it a more confident and assertive foreign policy actor. Chinese policy makers have taken note of these changes. India’s assertive border policy and growing partnership with the U.S. pose a growing challenge to China’s power. This makes Beijing wary about actions that it previously overlooked due the asymmetry in the relationship. At the same time, so far India perceives most Chinese actions as threatening, so China’s wariness will further enhance India’s threat perception. Post Op Sindoor in May 2025, China deepened its strategic footprint by reasserting territorial claims along the China-India border, backing Pakistan militarily during its clash with India, advancing trilateral talks with Pakistan and the Taliban, escalating tensions in the South China Sea, and expanding ties with ASEAN and the Gulf. These are all indicators pointing towards enhanced Chinese threat to India post Op Sindoor.

Over the last decades, China has rapidly increased its influence throughout the South Asian region, using both its hard and soft power tactics and succeeded in eclipsing India’s influence and emerged as an important player in the region. While focusing to imbalance India’s predominant position in South Asia, China is making huge investments in major infrastructure development projects and critical national projects in our neighbourhood. This is to prevent the rise of a peer competitor that can challenge or hinder the rise of China as a sole Asian power.

Apparently the China’s arsenal of deadly missiles has surpassed the dangerous milestone of 2,000 amid ongoing tensions with the US and India. Apart from these, China’s has a vast number of shortrange missiles and cruise missiles, posing a serious threat to India. China’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to have exceeded 600 operational warheads. The country is also investing heavily in space-based technologies to undermine U.S. superiority in satellite and surveillance systems and is building overseas military logistics hubs to support extended deployments.

IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

• The aligning of India’s neighbours in South Asian region with extra - regional powers including China poses threat to India’s security.
• Military and economic ambitions of China and Pakistan along with their efforts to modernise and expand military capabilities, and their strategic proximity make them India’s most significant security challenges. China emerges as a strong and reliable ally for Pakistan in the recent crisis.
• After a four–year military standoff in eastern Ladakh that plunged India-China relations to their lowest point in decades, 2024 witnessed a thaw in ties but a large strength of Indian troops still remain committed in Easter Ladakh which is economically draining defence budget
• India faces Chinese threat on military, economic, and strategic front and requires reorientation of its national security doctrine and overall strategy.
• India’s consistent position that mutual relations cannot be normalised without restoring peace and tranquility in the border areas is divergent to Chinese stand.

INDIA’S OPTIONS

• In the wake of Operation Sindoor India is likely to focus on reinforcing its global standing, bolstering its military strength, and countering China’s growing influence.
• As India and China celebrate 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations, Mr. Modi has a chance to gain a diplomatic edge by attending Chinese hosted Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit
• India and China must discuss ConfidenceBuilding Measures (CBMs) to enhance trust between the two militaries. India needs to strengthen its forces to emerge as an effective deterrent.
• India has to initiate strict measures to bridge its trade deficit with China and reduce its dependency on China especially in critical sectors like rare earth metals. The contours of economic engagement with China have to be drawn carefully keeping national security in mind.
• The stunning success of the operation Sindoor has exposed the multilayered threat posed not just by Pakistan but its backers-Turkey and China. India’s preparedness for a two-front war, rapid weapon indigenisation, drones mass production, and air defence upgrades must be immediate priorities.
• This is a pivotal moment for India-to solidify its deterrence through military selfreliance and to leverage its vast market as a strategic tool. Strategic autonomy must now become the cornerstone of national policy-militarily, diplomatically, and economically.
• All this makes China as India’s primary strategic rival and Pakistan remains more as a persistent, though secondary, security concern. The combination of the two does endanger India’s security concerns which need to be addressed on priority.

Aatm Nirbhar and Vikshit Bharat, modernised, most prepared and high morale Armed Forces is the best option and solution to counter our two nuclear armed hostile neighbours.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Col Rajesh Bhukar, The writer is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow