PK WIN SPELLS BAD NEWS FOR TEJASHWI?

Before analysing what poll strategist Prashant Kishor’s win means for the mighty NDA, it is important to assess how it could reshape Bihar’s Opposition politics and the potential damage it may inflict on RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav in the coming months.

It is true that PK has breached a BJP bastion, represented until recently by Nitin Nabin. More importantly, however, Tejashwi will no longer remain the only prominent face challenging the NDA in Bihar, especially if PK manages to sustain the momentum generated by his victory in such a significant constituency. With PK now entering the Assembly as a legislator, the Opposition space will have an astute political operator who has scripted electoral victories for several leaders across the country, particularly since 2014.

This emphatic victory not only gives PK a legislative platform to take on the government but also an opportunity to build his image as a credible alternative.

The Bankipur victory finally gives PK the political legitimacy he had long sought.

It may be recalled that PK’s Jan Suraaj failed to make a breakthrough in the 2025 Assembly elections, and Kishor himself chose not to contest after much speculation.

Instead of nursing his wounds after the 2025 Assembly polls, Jan Suraaj doubled down on grassroots politics. PK travelled extensively across Bihar, undertaking padyatras, addressing public meetings and steadily expanding the party’s organisational network. Bankipur is being viewed by his supporters as the first reward for that sustained outreach effort.

THE FACTORS

His campaign also framed the bypoll as a “referendum” on the BJP-led government, tapping into the anti-incumbency sentiment that had surfaced during recent protests in Bihar, New Delhi and other parts of the country. Kishor defeated BJP’s Neeraj Kumar by more than 19,000 votes, ending the BJP’s three-decade hold over a constituency most recently represented by Nitin Nabin.

At face value, the BJP has lost a fortress. But the RJD’s performance may be equally worrying.

Tejashwi Yadav had, until now, remained Bihar’s foremost Opposition leader. However, the Bankipur result raises questions about the RJD’s ability to retain that space.

It may be recalled that Tejashwi was away on a nearly three-week foreign trip during much of the campaign and returned only towards the end to canvass for party candidate Rekha Gupta. Needless to say, the effort failed to change the outcome. Gupta finished a distant third with just over 14,000 votes and even lost her security deposit, despite being the runner-up from the same seat in the 2025 Assembly election.

Prashant Kishor brings a different style of Opposition politics. Unlike Tejashwi, whose campaign has traditionally revolved around social justice and anti-incumbency, Kishor has consistently focused on education, governance, corruption, jobs and administrative reforms.

PK’s speeches, on the other hand, were heavily policy-oriented. His campaign has sought to position Jan Suraaj as a governance-first alternative rather than another castebased political formation.

However, Bihar is a different ball game, and whether PK’s message can sustain its momentum across the state remains an open question. It must also be remembered that Bankipur is an urban constituency with its own political dynamics.

Critics, however, may argue that it would be premature to write off Tejashwi. The RJD remains a far stronger organisation with an established vote base and a statewide network, while Jan Suraaj still has a long way to go.

Even so, there is little reason to dismiss PK’s victory. The symbolic value of winning Bankipur cannot be ignored. Kishor has now moved from being a political strategist-turned-activist to an elected legislator.

That gives him not only a voice inside the Assembly but also a new platform from which to shape the Opposition narrative.

For the BJP, the verdict is a warning that even its safest urban bastions are no longer immune to political upsets. For the Opposition, however, the bigger headline is the emergence of a second power centre.

HEAT ON SAMRAT

This was the BJP’s first electoral test after assuming the chief minister’s office in Bihar.

Samrat Choudhary became the state’s first BJP Chief Minister in April, succeeding JD(U) stalwart Nitish Kumar, who had dominated Bihar politics for nearly two decades.

For Prashant Kishor, the bypoll evolved into a direct contest with Samrat Choudhary. Throughout the campaign, the Jan Suraaj founder repeatedly targeted Choudhary over alleged criminal cases and his educational qualifications, turning what was expected to be a routine bypoll into a high-stakes political battle for the BJP’s new face in Bihar.

“The people of Bankipur have sent a clear message to the BJP leadership: ‘Please appoint a good person as the Chief Minister of Bihar.’ If the BJP wants to replace Samrat Choudhary with another leader from the Kushwaha community, that is entirely their decision. We have no objection. But whoever is chosen should be a capable and upright person from the Kushwaha community,” PK had told the media.

ANTI-INCUMBENCY FOR BJP

The Bankipur Assembly seat had been represented by Nitin Nabin for 20 years. Before him, it was held by his father, Nabin Kishore Prasad Sinha, for two terms. The constituency has remained with the Sinha family since 1995, making anti-incumbency a significant factor.

Prashant Kishor campaigned primarily on local development, promising visible changes within the next few months.

BRITTLE M-Y VOTE BANK FOR RJD

Another factor that appears to have worked in PK’s favour was the apparent fragmentation of the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s (RJD) traditional MuslimYadav (M-Y) vote base, long regarded as the party’s electoral backbone.

PK’S APPROACH

Beyond caste arithmetic and anti-incumbency, the campaign narrative itself may also have influenced voters. Coming just months after his high-voltage statewide campaign during the 2025 Assembly election, Kishor’s bypoll campaign focused on Bihar’s local issues. It also coincided with public discontent over student protests linked to paper leak controversies.

Prashant Kishor projected Jan Suraaj as an alternative centred on governance, accountability and clean politics, while what many viewed as the BJP’s confidence about retaining Bankipur also became a talking point during the campaign.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Robin Roy, The writer is Senior Journalist and former Managing Editor, First India