Monday, February, 17,2025

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DETERIORATING PAK-AFGHAN RELATIONS: INDIA’S PERSPECTIVES

The geopolitical landscape along the PakistanAfghanistan border, is undergoing a highly unpredictable transformation post withdrawal of the US and NATO forces and return of Taliban in Afghanistan in 2021. The South Asia region is witnessing turmoil as India faces mounting challenges from an increasingly volatile Bangladesh and Pakistan is grappling with the unexpected fallout from its shifting dynamics with Afghanistan. The Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship, once rooted in shared history and mutual interests, has soured to an alarming degree and the Taliban, once a significant strategic ally of Pakistan, now turns as an opponent on several fronts. The profound shift in this relationship is not just a matter of strained ties but a full-fledged crisis with military conflict exchanges and rising tensions along the Durand Line.

The Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan is inextricably linked to Pakistan’s historical strategic interests. Pakistan initially in conjunction with the United States and Saudi Arabia had played a pivotal role in arming and supporting Taliban against the Soviet Union and later provided logistical, material, and moral assistance to resist the U.S. and NATO forces. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, a moment of perceived victory for the Afghan-Pak axis, was expected to strengthen Pakistan’s strategic position, but surprisingly things turned reverse for Pakistan.

The return of the Taliban to power has changed the regional calculus as they are now full of self-confidence with a sense of nationalism exhibited through rejection of the Durand Line as the International Border with Pakistan making it a bone of contention between two old allies.

Taliban’s support for Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a terrorist group that operates out of Afghanistan and targets Pakistan has strained the already fragile Pak - Afghan relationship. The Taliban’s lack of cooperation, combined with ideological differences and competing regional aspirations, has led to a breakdown in trust.

Taliban’s ambition to lead the global Islamic movement, a vision that aligns them in competition with Pakistan has exacerbated tensions, particularly as the Taliban seeks to expand its influence beyond Afghanistan’s borders.

The Taliban’s relationship with India has evolved in a surprising manner raising many eyebrows in Islamabad. The new Taliban sees India as an important partner in securing regional economic support, especially given Pakistan’s inability to provide sufficient assistance. This economic and diplomatic shift poses a challenge to Pakistan, India being its primary adversary in the region.

The Taliban’s growing relations with China and Russia provides Afghanistan with international legitimacy enabling them to exert as an independent force, thus reducing Pakistan’s leverage to use Afghanistan as a buffer against potential threats from India.

Compounding these issues is Pakistan’s internal security situation. The country’s military is engaged in multiple internal conflicts, notably in Baluchistan. The overstretched military forces in the region are unable to effectively address both domestic security concerns and the growing external threat from the Taliban, leading to a precarious situation.

The conflict along the Durand Line, military exchanges resulting in casualties on both sides, and the Taliban’s support for the TTP along with deepening ideological divide between Pakistan and the Taliban drifts Pak-Afghan relations to low ebb. Pakistan risks finding it embroiled in a multi-front conflict at a time when it’s economic and social stability is already precarious and this definitely puts India in an advantageous position.

India must assess the shifting regional dynamics in light of the growing instability along the Afghan-Pak border. India’s growing relations with Afghanistan, particularly in the areas of economic assistance and regional cooperation, will put Pakistan in a fix. A strengthened India-Afghan relationship, particularly in the context of Pakistan’s growing isolation, could create new opportunities for India to exert influence in the region.

India needs to exploit this advantageous situation by careful diplomacy and strategic foresight with a nuanced approach, balancing economic cooperation with regional security concerns and guarding its strategic interests in the broader context of South Asian geopolitics.

The latest meeting between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Amir Khan Muttaqi, acting foreign minister of the Taliban, has confirmed India’s intentions to raise its influence with the Afghan leadership. India has invested more than $3bn in aid and reconstruction work in Afghanistan in the past 20 years and the major focus is on : regional developments, trade and humanitarian cooperation plus an agreement to resume developmental projects and to support the health sector and refugees in Afghanistan.

India’s condemnation of Pakistan’s air attacks on Afghanistan, Taliban’s appointment of a former Afghan student in India in the Mumbai Consulate and meeting of India’s Foreign Secretary and Afghan acting Foreign Minister in Dubai, places India on a growing list of countries, including Russia, China, Turkiye, Iran and Uzbekistan.

Well for India, engaging Taliban is a reality, and ignoring Afghanistan and its people is not an option. India acknowledges its historical ties and strategic importance of Afghanistan but cannot overlook the fact the risk of radicalization that looms large in the region and even for India with resurgence of Taliban. India has to guard against putting all eggs in one (the Taliban) basket and do not repeat the mistake as was done in case of Hamid Karzai and Sheikh Hasina.

The deeper involvement of Pakistan’s counter-terrorism forces against the TTP creates a temporary military advantage for India and strengthens its position in Jammu & Kashmir.

India, like other nations, has not officially recognized the Taliban government, but New Delhi is nonetheless moving towards normalizing relations with Kabul to deny China, its main rival, fills the void left by the departure of the West.

Pakistan’s strategic vulnerability is further exposed with India’s development of the Chabahar port in Iran. This port provides Afghanistan with an alternative route to access global markets without needing to go through Pakistan. As a result, India’s influence in Afghanistan is increasing, while Pakistan’s role as the main transit hub for Afghan goods is being reduced.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Col Rajesh Bhukar, The writer is a Post Graduate in International Studies, Alumni of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and College of Combat, Mhow [email protected]

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Aries

Today brings opportunities for growth, but you'll need to stay focused. Trust your instincts to navigate challenges.

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Your intuition will guide you. Trust your feelings and explore creative outlets for peace of mind.

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Virgo

Focus on organization and details. A well-planned day will lead to productive results and personal satisfaction.

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Leo

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