A HOLISTIC OVERVIEW OF THE INDIA–UK CETA READING A LANDMARK TRADE PACT THROUGH A WIN-WIN LENS

Fourteen negotiating rounds. Three years. One London signing ceremony on 24th July 2025, and now, on 15th July 2026, the India–United Kingdom Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, or CETA, finally comes into force. Numbers alone rarely tell a story worth reading, but these are worth sitting with for a moment: bilateral trade already stands around $56 billion, and both governments are now working toward doubling that figure by 2030. Behind the smooth diplomacy lies something more interesting than a tariff schedule. It is a sincere attempt to rewire how two very different economies do business with each other.

India has signed comprehensive deals before, but never with a G7 economy of this size and complexity. For the UK, this is its most ambitious trade agreement since leaving the European Union, aka BREXIT. What distinguishes CETA from the usual run of trade announcements is its structure: thirty chapters spanning goods, services, investment, mobility, digital trade, intellectual property and government procurement, built with enough reciprocity that each side at the end of the day are happy and satisfied. Whether this reciprocity survives contact with ten years of implementation is, of course, the open question. For now, the architecture itself deserves a closer look.

THE SHAPE OF THE DEAL, IN NUMBERS

Start with what changes on day one, because that is where the deal is least ambiguous.

• Ninety-nine per cent of India’s tariff lines into the UK become dutyfree immediately.
• Tariffs disappear on processed foods (up to 70%), marine products (21.5%), engineering goods and auto components (18%), leather and footwear (16%), textiles and clothing (12%), and chemicals and pharmaceuticals (8%).
• The UK government’s own estimate puts annual tariff savings for its exporters at roughly £400 million at entry into force, rising to £900 million within a decade.
• Both governments have set an informal target of doubling two-way trade by 2030 from the current level.

None of these figures guarantee outcomes on their own — tariff elimination only matters if exporters actually use it, and rulesof-origin compliance is where many smaller firms historically lose the benefit before they ever claim it. Still, the scale of what has been removed is unusual and worth understanding sector by sector.

WHAT INDIA GAINS — AND GAINS IMMEDIATELY

The most striking feature of CETA, from an Indian vantage point, is how front-loaded the benefit is. Many trade deals ask the weaker negotiating partner to wait years for the real payoff. Here is a quick look at some of India’s most labour-intensive export sectors that would get duty-free UK access from the very first day.

• Textiles and apparel: India is the fourth largest textile supplier to the UK. Zero duty market access from the earlier 12% comes as a genuine competitiveness lever, closing a gap that had long favoured other neighbouring countries under their own preferential arrangements. The sector is poised for immense growth, considering that out of the UK’s total textile import of $ 26.95 billion, India exports merely $ 1.79 billion.
• Leather and footwear: duties as steep as 16% fall away, which should bring immediate joy to manufacturers looking to scale up their British order books.
• Marine products and processed foods: with tariffs as high as 70% on processed foods and 21.5% on seafood gone, our marine products exporters can now compete on a noticeably even footing against their competing rivals.
• Gems, jewellery, plastics, chemicals and pharmaceuticals: with zero duty market access, sectors held back by varied tariff peaks can now compete on cost and craftsmanship.
• Engineering products: UK happens to be the sixth largest destination of our engineering products, grossing $ 4.28 billion currently. With tariff eliminated now under CETA, this is expected to touch $ 7.5 billion by 2029-30, exhibiting a robust 12- 20% CAGR and will help in achieving India’s overall target of $ 300 billion in engineering goods exports by 2030.

Mobility is the quieter story, but arguably the one with a wider reach. The Double Contribution Convention, taking effect the same day as CETA, ends the practice of Indian professionals on UK assignment paying social security twice — once at home, once abroad — and stretches the exemption window from three years to five. Indian officials expect this to help more than 75,000 professionals, easing cost pressures for IT services firms, engineering consultancies and fintech companies.

WHAT UK GAINS — MOSTLY ON A LONGER CLOCK

India carries the highest average tariff of any G20 economy, and its steepest peaks have historically sat on exactly the goods UK most wants to sell. Understandably, CETA does not eliminate those peaks overnight, but it commits to dismantling them on a fixed, published timetable. A few sectors that offer exciting prospects are:

• Scotch whisky and gin: duties are halved immediately, from 150% to 75%, and are set to fall to 40% within ten years. Some studies project UK’s exports could climb from around £250 million to £1 billion within five years, aimed at discerning target audience in India.
• Automobiles: tariffs north of 100% fall to 10% under a quota, phased over five to fifteen years by vehicle category. India’s sub- £40,000 electric vehicle (EV) segment stays carved out, a deliberate shield for domestic manufacturers still building scale.
• Cosmetics and medical devices: duties as high as 22% disappear, either immediately or over a ten-year runway, opening India’s premium retail shelf to British consumer brands.
• Financial and professional services: For UK, CETA widens access into the Indian market that many previously used to rank among the most restrictive services economies.

GUARDRAILS, NOT JUST GIVEAWAYS

What keeps CETA from reading like a one-way concession is the presence of real protections on both sides. India has, arguably, ring-fenced its steel sector while still preserving UK market access for roughly 85% of its steel exports, using a mix of country-specific quotas, residual quotas and the UK’s Authorised Use Scheme. The massmarket EV segment gets similar treatment through price thresholds and quota ceilings. Perhaps the more interesting provision, though, is cumulation — the rule allowing a UK manufacturer to use Indian-origin components, or an Indian manufacturer to use UKorigin ones, without losing preferential tariff treatment on the finished good. That single clause does more to encourage genuinely shared supply chains than any tariff cut on its own.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Sabyasachi Dutta, The writer is Country Director – India and Member of the Managing Committee (2025-26) of ASSOCHAM