Friday, January, 31,2025

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OF TRUMP 2.0 & INDIA

With Israel and Hamas agreeing on a ceasefire pact soon after Donald Trump’s coming to power, the focus has already shifted to the Russia-Ukraine war which is inching towards its third anniversary. It may be noted that so far there hasn’t been any formal dialogue to end the war and seek truce. It may be recalled that Trump had made ending war(s) a major campaign promise. Ukraine, however, expects India among a few other countries to play a major role in ending the strife.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s close aide and Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak said India is in a position to “play a big role” in resolving the military conflict, however, it must be noted that all eyes are on the Trump administration in this regard. Yermak observed, “We are looking very positively at the role of the United States and President Trump for ending this war. We are looking at starting consultations with the new US administration.”

“We will not lose time and immediately start working towards it (after Trump’s inauguration),” he said. Strife-torn Ukraine has already been pushing for an early start of negotiations with the Trump administration to bring peace in the country and the region in the larger perspective. Riding the strong bond crest between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump may assist in maintaining a positive working relationship especially in the geopolitical dynamics with regard to Beijing apart from defence matters and imbalances in trade matters.

In this article let’s focus on the key areas where the Modi-Trump relationship would be tested and keenly watched. Trade and business will remain a major issue under the new POTUS and Trump’s second term. Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda will automatically lead to policies which will automatically protect the interests of the US. Notably, the administration has repeatedly criticized countries, including India, for unfair trade practices, especially in sectors like information technology and pharmaceuticals. During his first term, Trump had referred to India as a “tariff king” and imposed tariffs on a variety of products. The matter may just resurface in his second term, as Trump remains committed to a reciprocal tax system that could have implications for India’s trade balance.

India’s crucial role in the “China Plus One” strategy — a policy aimed at diversifying global supply chains away from China — may provide New Delhi with opportunities to expand its base especially in the manufacturing sector and increase exports to the US. If the US seeks to shift supply chains out of China in this term, New Delhi could expect to emerge as an alternative manufacturing hub. However, India must take the initiative in this regard and hard sell the country’s cause.

Moreover, the bond between Trump and Modi could allow for smoother negotiations and possibly a more flexible approach to several issues. While tariff concerns are unlikely to disappear, India’s strategic importance in the IndoPacific could provide a fillip to reduce trade friction. Another contentious issue(s) during Trump’s first term was his approach to immigration, especially his restrictions on the H-1B visa program, which is crucial for Indian tech workers. Trump’s administration implemented policies aimed at limiting the flow of foreign skilled workers to the US, a move that particularly affected Indian professionals in the tech and IT sectors.

If these policies resurface in Trump’s second term, it could be a significant challenge for India’s survival and the future of the country’s IT ecosystem. Indian IT firms that depend on sending workers to the US could face difficulties in getting work visas, which would affect their ability to jack up output and meet the demand of US clients. Also, Indian workers who rely on the H-1B visa to work in the US may see a reduction in opportunities if the Trump administration implements even more restrictive policies regarding the issuance of visas.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY THE AUTHOR ARE PERSONAL

Robin Roy, The writer is Senior Journalist and former Managing Editor, First India

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Your determination will be unmatched. Dive deep into tasks, but don't forget to take breaks to recharge.

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Libra

Harmony in relationships is your priority. Compromise and understanding will strengthen your bonds.

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Virgo

Focus on organization and details. A well-planned day will lead to productive results and personal satisfaction.

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Leo

Leadership will come naturally. Take charge of situations but remain humble for the best outcomes.

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Cancer

Emotional balance is key today. Spend quality time with loved ones to find comfort and clarity.

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Gemini

Today is perfect for networking and sharing ideas. Your adaptability will help you tackle unexpected changes with ease.

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Taurus

Patience will be your strength today. Financial matters might need attention, so think twice before making big decisions.

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Aries

Today brings opportunities for growth, but you'll need to stay focused. Trust your instincts to navigate challenges.

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Pisces

Your intuition will guide you. Trust your feelings and explore creative outlets for peace of mind.

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Aquarius

Innovation is your theme today. Explore unconventional ideas to solve lingering problems.

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Capricorn

Hard work pays off today. Your dedication and discipline will lead to well-deserved recognition.

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Sagittarius

Adventure is calling! Embrace new opportunities, but keep a balanced approach to risks.

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Scorpio

Your determination will be unmatched. Dive deep into tasks, but don't forget to take breaks to recharge.