Voting pattern in Lok Sabha different from Assembly elections in Rajasthan

Jaipur: The voting pattern in Rajasthan Assembly and Lok Sabha elections appears to be different for the last two decades. Victory in the Assembly does not guarantee victory on 25 Lok Sabha seats. The thinking of voters is visible in different ways in these two elections. At the same time, election issues also seem to float separately in the election atmosphere. There is a huge difference in the vote share percentage of both BJP and Congress and this voting swing is visible with a difference of just six months. In the 2018 assembly elections, a slogan describing this pattern in the politics of Rajasthan was very much discussed, ‘Vasundhara teri khair nahin, Modi tujhse bair nahi’. In this election, where the people ousted the BJP government from power in the state, in the Lok Sabha elections held five months later, BJP won by getting all 25 seats.

Different pattern seen in 1998
If we look at the election data of Rajasthan since 1998, we find that the voting pattern of Assembly and Lok Sabha elections is completely different. Even though there is a gap of a few months between the two elections, the results of both do not have any significant impact on each other.

For example, in the 1998 Assembly elections, the Congress government led by Ashok Gehlot came to power with a bumper mandate, while in the next year i.e. 1999 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP was defeated. In the assembly elections, Congress got 76 per cent votes while BJP could get only 16.5 per cent. This was reversed in the Lok Sabha elections. In the Lok Sabha elections, Congress got 36 per cent votes and BJP got 64 per cent votes.

From 2003 to 2014, party that formed govt got more votes
Between 2003 and 2014, a special pattern was visible in Rajasthan. The party which won the Assembly elections also won maximum seats in Lok Sabha elections.

In 2003, when BJP government was formed in the state with 64 percent votes, its voting percentage in the Lok Sabha reached 84.

In the 2008 assembly elections, Congress got 48 per cent votes and when its government was formed, this vote reached 80 per cent in the Lok Sabha.

However, this pattern changed in the year 2018 because Congress won the Assembly elections that year but in 2019, the BJP won 24 out of 25 seats while one seat was won by its NDA ally Hanuman Beniwal’s RLP.