Voters in absolute terms increased in first two phases, SBI Research terms low turnout debate as myth

New Delhi: In the first two phases of the Lok Sabha polls 2024, 8.7 lakh additional voters have voted with an increase of 0.4 per cent over the first two phases of 2019. Women voters have outstripped men in incremental numbers, according to an analysis by SBI Research.
In a report titled 'WHITE NOISE: A J-SHAPED voting on the anvil' published on Monday, SBI Research asserted that the debates propagated around supposedly low voter turnout in the first two phases of the Lok Sabha elections 2024 was a myth.
While the voter turnout ratio is showing a declining trend in 2024 as compared to 2019 in percentage terms, in terms of absolute voters there is a significant increase over already the high base in 2019, the report authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India, said.
Provisionally, a total of 20.7 crore voters cast their votes in 2024 as compared to 20.6 crore cast their votes in 2019, an increase of 8.7 lakh voters.
It noted that a clear and better measure of voting pattern can be gauged by an absolute number of voters and not on per cent of votes polled.
In another revelation, the analysis found that 60 per cent of parliamentary constituencies who have voted so far show either an increase or status quo in terms of votes cast.
"The numbers can swell in the remaining 5 phases with earnest efforts from the Election Commission of India and based on voter turnout probabilities.......Parliament Efficiency at its best in the past 68 years...," the report said.
Further a welcome and encouraging trend visible through its analysis pertained to the increase in absolute votes in the reserved constituencies vis-a-vis the open constituencies.
Of the total 8.7 lakh increase in voters, 70 per cent happened in 42 reserved (SC+ST) constituencies only, SBI Research said.
In 2019, the voting pattern showed a declining trend over the seven phases, starting at 69.4 per cent and finishing at 61.7 per cent (reaching a cumulative average of 67.7 per cent).
In 2024, SBI Research believes a reverse phenomenon could be underway, with voting percentage poised for a marked improvement going by the absolute numbers of voting exercised in the first two phases -- 66.1 per cent and 66.7 per cent.
The two phases of 2024 general elections have happened so far with total voter turnout at 66.1 per cent in phase 1 and 66.7 per cent in phase 2; this is almost 3.1 per cent less than 2019.
"With the completion of the 3rd phase on 7th May, more than half of the PCs (parliamentary constituencies) and registered electorates therein would be covered enabling a better analysis...," it said.
The first two phases were spread across 191 constituencies, covering 35 per cent of the registered voters across the country.
Analysing state-wise trends, it found Karnataka accounted for the highest number of increase in voters in 2024, followed by Assam and Maharashtra.
A granular analysis of constituencies showed absolute voters casting their votes increasing by more than 1 lakh in 85 constituencies whereas in 25 constituencies, there has been status quo. Hence 60 per cent of constituencies exhibited either an increase or no marked difference.
SBI Research estimates show that the turnout within constituencies destined to poll in upcoming phases should be on the higher side.
"We also believe the scorching summer and sweeping heat waves might have played a spoilsport for a certain percentage of voters willing yet unable to exercise the franchise," it asserted.
General elections are being held in seven phases from April 19 to June 1 with votes for the 543 Lok Sabha seats to be counted on June 4.