SP, BJP, BSP have different stakes

Lucknow: The by-election for the Azamgarh parliamentary seat has its own implications and connotations for political parties. While the SP has to prove that its credibility is fully intact among Muslim voters, the Saifai family is going through a tough test of its hold in this bastion.

Whereas the BJP is testing the effectiveness of its organization and caste equations, the politically decimated BSP is eager to gain new hope through this electoral battle. Azamgarh seat with about 19 lakh voters may have a majority of Muslim and Yadav voters, but a significant number of Dalit, OBC, and Most OBC voters are also present. Voting pattern, in the last general elections and the recently concluded assembly elections, shows that a large majority of Jatav and Pasi voters still have affiliations with the BSP, while Lonia, Chauhan, Kurmi, Nishad, Mauryas and Rajbhar voters strengthened the BJP's vote base; although the first choice of Muslim and Yadav voters has remained the SP. Political observers assert that BSP founder Kanshi Ram had strengthened his base here by integrating several backward and Dalit castes into the party fold.

Because of this BSP won the Lok Sabha elections four times from here. However, in the year 2019, due to the alliance with the SP, this mass base was eroded from the BSP at a rapid pace. As a result, for the first time in the year 2022, BSP could not win a single assembly seat from the district. Now in this by-election, Mayawati has deliberately fielded Shah Alam aka Guddu Jamali in the electoral fray, if this experiment is successful then it will help to prove that the major chunk of Dalit voters is still fully committed to the BSP. At the same time, this message will be delivered among the Muslim community that not the SP but only the BSP has the ability to defeat the BJP with the strength of its core vote base.