‘Shivpal factor’ can hurt SP prospects in Azamgarh

Lucknow: Eight years ago, SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, contesting from Azamgarh seat, was apprehensive about his victory in the initial phase itself, so he called his brother Shivpal Singh Yadav there. The latter’s presence not only strengthened the SP, but also ensured Mulayam’s victory by 3.60 lakhs in spite of the pro-Modi wave. Later, addressing a meeting in Saifai, MSY admitted candidly that the Azamgarh election was a close shave for him. He credited the members of Saifai family, including Shivpal, for the victory of that Lok Sabha election.

However, subsequent developments led to a deep rift between Shivpal and his nephew, Akhilesh. In the 2017 assembly polls, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav completely sidelined Shivpal. Despite the alliance with Congress in that election, the party could not even reach 50 seats. It was believed that along with the BJP wave, Shivpal’s discontent also played a role in the defeat of SP. In the backdrop of Shivpal’s displeasure, in 2019 general elections, three members of the Saifai family lost in SP’s bastions - Dimple Yadav from Kannauj, Akshay Yadav from Firozabad and Dharmendra Yadav from Badaun. Although Shivpal had withdrawn the candidature of his outfit PSPL candidate Sunil Rathore from Kannauj, the result of his annoyance was that Akhilesh’s wife lost the election by just 12k votes to BJP’s Subrata Pathak. In Badaun, Dharmendra Yadav was defeated by BJP’s Sanghamitra Maurya by 26k votes.

Shivpal Yadav himself apparently became an obstacle in the way of his nephew Akshay, who registered a big victory in 2014 from Firozabad seat; Chandrasen Jadaun of BJP won by 28k votes. Akshay was second and Shivpal was in third position.

Political observers assert that BJP’s campaigning in support of ‘Nirahua’, who secured 35.1 per cent votes against Akhilesh last time, is clearly indicating that the ruling party does not want to allow the by-election to become an ‘easy fight’ in any case. When every vote is valuable, in such a situation, the stand of political stalwart Shivpal, who has been left out of the list of star campaigners of SP, will matter a lot. The ‘Shivpal factor’, which has become the cause of concern for the SP in the past, can prove to be harmful for the poll calculations of the SP even in this by-election.