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Lucknow: In the by-election of Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat, the hopes of SPBSP and BJP rest on caste equations. All three parties have their own calculus of votes. According to the demographic data, there are about 19 lakh voters in Azamgarh, of which Yadav and Muslim communities together make up nearly 45% of the electorate.

Around 30 per cent of the Dalit voters are in a decisive role here, while 25 per cent of upper castes and most backward castes also have their own influence. Through the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) combination, the Saifai family converted this seat into a pocket borough of SP. BSP supremo Mayawati has bet on Muslim-Dalit equations by fielding Shah Alam alias Guddu Jamali, a two-time MLA from Mubarakpur assembly seat here.

BJP strategists have calculated that its candidate Bhojpuri singer-actor Nirahua will make a significant dent among Yadav voters as well as if he gets the support of the upper caste, most Dalit and most backward voters, then the electoral history of 2009 can be repeated. When for the first time BJP got success from here, Ramakant Yadav won.

Political observers insist in the last LS elections the vote percentage of SP had increased tremendously due to alliance with BSP. In the elections before that, the margin of victory for the SP was relatively small. This viewpoint is corroborated by the fact that Akhilesh, who entered the fray with the SP-BSP alliance in the 2019 elections, won this seat by securing a record 621578 votes i.e. 60.4 percent vote share. While BJP candidate Dinesh Lal Yadav was runner up by getting 361704 votes i.e. 35.1 percent votes. Whereas in 2014, SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav won this seat by getting 35.4 percent vote share.

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