MODI AND SHAH BRING J&K BACK TO STABILITY AND DEMOCRACY: Dr CHANDRA

In light of Jammu & Kashmir’s first elections in a decade, Dr Jagdeesh Chandra ponders whether the BJP can make significant inroads in Srinagar. With Article 370’s abrogation a central talking point, is this election a verdict on the policies of Amit Shah and Narendra Modi? Dr Chandra offers an in-depth discussion on this and related topics. Excerpts... (Part I)

• Will the lotus bloom in Srinagar this time and the BJP come to power as the single largest party?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: Maybe. Nothing can be said. But the most important thing is that it will be a ‘Hung Assembly.’ No single party is coming to power with a single majority. No political party is going to form its government without any coalition. It will be a coalition government. And when it is a coalition government, everything is in the Centre’s hand, everything is with the BJP. Omar Abdullah himself is scared. He has said that if there is a division of votes, the BJP can form the government, and the lotus can bloom. Dr Jitendra Singh has said that the BJP will form the government and no post-poll alliances would be required. Ram Madhav’s language is also more or less the same. So, the BJP is fully confident that this time, the lotus will bloom in Srinagar and it will form the government on its own. Overall, the NCCongress alliance, with the chances of PDP joining in, gives it an edge at 51%, while the BJP has a chance of 49% to form the government. But then, the tactical sagacity of Amit Shah is invincible. With his presence, when a deficit of 1% turns into a surplus of 2%, no one can say. So, this much can be said with confidence that the possible blooming of the lotus in Srinagar can’t be ruled out.

• In case it finally comes to Hung Assembly, who will be the CM face according to you?
  If it is a ‘Hung Assembly,’ then let us decide first, which party is likely to be the single largest party. From what it seems, the BJP can be the single largest party. If we calculate the possibilities of Dr Jitendra Singh and Ram Madhav, they can bring in 35 seats from Jammu, and 10 from the valley, and manage one more seat from somewhere, which makes for the prerequisite 46 seats. The Governor will invite the BJP, the largest party, to form the government in 7-10 days. It is as simple as this. Now, what are the options if the BJP doesn’t emerge as the single largest party? The first, the Omar Abdullah-led NCCongress alliance, along with some other parties like PDP will in all likelihood form the government. Now, what if Omar Abdullah fails to win like it happened the last time? In that case, Farooq Abdullah may nominate someone as his successor. He would do that fast because by delaying the process he may give birth to new re-alignments. The second option is BJP join hands with the PDP and some Independents to form government. So, it all boils down to the fact that which party emerges as the single largest party.

• You mentioned the name of Ram Madhav twice. Do you think it is a ‘litmus test’ for Ram Madhav also in this election?
  It can be said that it is a chance for Ram Madhav to show his talent. He has been brought into the mainstream. At one time, he was only a spokesperson of the RSS. He was a powerful general secretary. But his style of functioning was high profile, which did not suit the cultural ethos of the BJP and RSS, people felt. So, he was sidelined for four years, before being again drafted for an important mission. He has already shown his proficiency and expertise in Kashmir by his result-oriented approach. He had an important role when the BJP-led government was formed in the state in 2015. He wields considerable influence in the valley. He knows the political parties of the region well. The top leadership of the party has reposed faith in him, giving him the responsibility to help form the BJP government in Kashmir. He is also putting his best foot forward under the supervision of Amit Shah. So, if Ram Madhav comes back winning the state for the BJP, he will certainly have the blessings of Narendra Modi back in Delhi. In a way, yes it is a ‘litmus test’ for him. If he wins it for the party, certainly it will be great. Even if he doesn’t, the numbers will show. But it can be safely said that the credit for the ‘advantage BJP’ scenario that has been created by the efforts of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah will go to Ram Madhav. He can be called the ‘Second Man’ in command, or the principal advisor, and his future sems bright.

• Is it true that on election day the mood in Kashmir was like Eid celebrations?
  Certainly, it was ‘Eid mood’ in Kashmir. People were enthusiastic and positive. From 7 in the morning, they had come out of their houses and lined up in queues to cast their vote. Children who had grown up, were voting for the first time. After voting, they were seen flaunting their voting mark. People were seen walking down the narrow lanes, nooks and corners to come out and vote. Most importantly, no extra security arrangements were made. There was no barricading, no extra policing. Everything was smooth and a normal election process. Someone rightly said the atmosphere all around was no less than Eid celebrations. Indeed, on election day on the 18th, we can say the mood was like Eid.

• If this election is analysed in 3-4 lines, what would you say?
  First, it will be a tough batter. A very tough battle. The BJP is trying hard to have electoral supremacy. On the other hand, the other regional parties are trying their best to regain their lost autonomy and identity. It is the crux of the situation in Kashmir. Second, Srinagar and Kashmir are back to normal, back to democracy, courtesy- Amit Shah and Narendra Modi. You see people, who had boycotted elections for the last 40 years, the terrorists, the militants, and the separatists, they are all now part of the mainstream. Many are fighting elections. They are going to voters and urging them to vote for them. This is a great thing. And then, people who stood with stones- women, men, children- to boycott polls, are today standing in queues to cast their vote. This is the way, the scenario has changed. I think I have been able to sum up the Kashmir story in 3-4 lines.

• Is this election a referendum on Amit Shah and Narendra Modi over their experiment with Article 370?
  This may be a perception across the country, but actually, it is not so. Article 370 is done and dusted. It cannot come back. It is history now. Amit Shah has himself said, it is not a referendum, politically. There is a perception in Kashmir and beyond that it is a referendum, but I don’t believe so. The referendum is applicable when there is a chance of something coming back or being brought back. Article 370 is not going to be back for sure. It is ruled out. Amit Shah just told in Kashmir the other day, that the government had buried Article 370 and no power in the world could revive it. And it is indeed a fact. So, it is not a referendum, it is only a perception of referendum.

• We saw 61% voting in the first phase of Kashmir elections and 57% voting in the second phase. Is there some message in this too?
  The message is that in the second phase, there was not so much enthusiasm. Now, it must be known why there was less enthusiasm for it. It is a matter of research. But it is true that in the second phase, there was no such kind of enthusiasm as in the first phase. In the second phase, a sense of fear crept into people’s minds, leading to lower voter turnout. While the positive message from the initial phase may not have aligned with the terrorists’ agenda, prompting them to employ covert tactics to influence voters, it’s undeniable that there was a noticeable despondency and non-chalance compared to the first phase on the 18th. However, it’s difficult to pinpoint a single reason for this shift.

• Is it true that the issue of Article 370 has become intertwined with the self-respect and dignity of the people of Kashmir?
  Yes, certainly it is so. The government did everything for them, but could not win their hearts. It can still be safely said that at least 51% of the people in the valley wish Article 370 was back again. It doesn’t make sense. Kashmir is back to normal. Their businesses have prospered. But psychologically, emotionally, or as a matter of sentiment, somewhere it comes to their mind that the issue is related to their respect and dignity. But the ground reality is different. Look at how normal life is in Gulmarg, in Pahalgam, in Srinagar. These very people who live and enjoy life here lament the loss of 370. But though it has lost relevance, the reality is people are still attached to Article 370 and there is a kind of vague pain or apprehension that they are living with.

• Can you throw some more light on whether really there was less enthusiasm in the second phase election of September 25, as compared to the excitement of the first phase polls on the 18th?
  Yes, as I have said, there was indeed less enthusiasm in the people of the valley in the second phase of polling. One reason is the machinery, the government, political, and election machinery, became overconfident in the success of the first phase. This happens as a natural consequence. You expect a certain number of votes as obvious, but it doesn’t always happen that way. It can’t be taken for granted. The machinery and the workers got a bit relaxed in the second phase, I believe, which is one of the main reasons. But there are many local factors also at play, like the unavailability of vehicles, a series of marriages etc. There may not be one particular reason, but it was not by design. It just happened.

TO BE CONTINUED…

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