Managing Gandhis, handling the ‘power sharing’ & bringing annual Rs 62k cr for Rahul’s five guarantee freebies, a challenge before Siddaramaiah: Dr Chandra

Dr Jagdeesh Chandra — CEO and Editor-in-Chief, Bharat24-Vision of New India and First India; CMD, First India News, analyses the Karnataka election results and how the Congress has come to power in the State. Dr Chandra also reveals how Congress’ CM Siddaramaiah will have a tough time owing to various challenges before him, how it was sheer luck and destiny that brought Congress to helm in the State and how it was a divided BJP that resulted in Congress’ victory more than a united Congress. Excerpts... (Part-1)

• Three days passed and then the Chief Minister of Karnataka was selected. How do you visualise this entire episode?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: The entire chain of events is under normal process. When ever CM is selected in any State, except under BJP rule, where a chit is pulled out and the name is announced without delay, it takes time. And now the CM name has been announced and Siddaramaiah will be CM. They have taken time to solve the issue surrounding DK Shivakumar, but still the good part is that the names have been decided upon in a reasonable time.

• What, according to you, will be the challenges before the new Chief Minister? Do you think that even after all the understandings and deals, will this government function for five years?
  See, this is an important question as to what are the challenges. The biggest challenge before the new Chief Minister is Gandhi family, where there are three ‘Power Centres,’ and to strike a balance between the three and to work with them, to keep himself equidistant from all the Gandhis and to fit himself in the internal politics of 10, Janpath while keeping in mind the DK factor. The second challenge is the ‘power sharing formula’ with DK Shivakumar. It is being said that about a dozen men would be sworn in as ministers and of these, three would be Siddaramaiah’s and remaining would be DK’s of which, one would be Parmeshwaran and even Congress Chief Kharge’s son can be sworn-in, it is being said. So overall, this ‘power sharing formula’ is a challenge in itself. And even if this is decided, then the issue of total ministers in the Cabinet would arise. Then there would be the issue of distribution of departments. Then there will be the issue of transfer list of IAS, IPS, the State bureaucracy. That is a major issue, which seems small, but is actually an extremely sensitive issue. Then the issue of appointment of individuals to Corporations, Boards etc. And on top of that, the biggest challenge is that to fulfil the guarantees and promises made by Congress like OPS etc, the State needs a budget of Rs 62,000 crore, and where will this money come from? These are the basic challenges.
  Secondly, you asked if this government will be able to complete a full-term. That in itself is the prime challenge and the biggest challenge, because it is seldom that someone completes five year term in Karnataka. Siddaramaiah completed one term of five years, but after that, who ever comes, like Yediyurappa had to go within six days, then Kumaraswamy came and he went in about thirteen months’ time and when Yediyurappa returned, he had to drop out after two years. So, this ‘up and down’ keeps happening in Karnataka politics and political instability is a common feature. So, we will have to wait and see how the ‘power sharing formula’ plays up and what happening in two and a half years from now.

• What was the reason for this unfathomable loss of BJP in Karnataka?
  It is all part of luck and destiny. Reasons can be only for namesake and I can list a few. First reason was the ‘anti-establishment’ factor. Then second is the ‘perception on corruption’ that kind of created a wave. Pay CM or the 40 percent commission type of lingo resonated with people. Corruption is nothing new. Manmohan Singh government went out of power due to this and over the past eight years, corruption is hardly an issue. Rather ‘Hindutva’ & ‘Nationalism’ is an issue, but in Karnataka, it became an issue with slogans like pay CM and 40 percent. A narrative was spun around it and there were columns in papers and complaints were also made in the Election Commission but till then, a lot of time had passed and the contractor, who had claimed that 40 % were demanded from him, he committed suicide and thus, he couldn’t reveal what the truth and false of the case were. The State govt removed the minister, who allegedly demanded the 40 percent commission and that Minister was not given the ticket because it had caused a major damage. So, overall an atmosphere had been created in Karnataka on corruption. Thirdly, ‘Yediyurappa factor’ as it appears that he could not come out openly in support and fourthly, the ‘ticket distribution’ was also faulted. See there are groups everywhere and the internal strife, even though the High Command tried to handle that, but the internal strife was too much. Then, several leaders left the party, which generally does not happen in BJP. They tried to pacify the disgruntled lot, which too generally does not happen in BJP, and the disgruntled lot did not pay heed. So, overall, it was a conspiracy of circumstances due to which BJP had to face such a loss wherein, no factor worked, which is surprising. This result can not be analysed scientifically, because it betrays all logic. It is a game played by destiny.

• Do you think Government of India’s feedback system had gone ‘One-way’?
  I personally believe that Narendra Modi’s system, the feedback system in PMO, or in IB or in Ministries is ‘foolproof,’ broadly. PM never stays in the dark as he gets exact feedback. And at many times, he has retracted his steps too keeping in mind, the public sentiment, for example, what happened in the farmers’ agitation. But we don’t know what happened this time around as it seems the system has collapsed. Either they knew that they were going to lose, but it seems that somewhere the system has failed and I feel that somewhere Narendra Modi must be feeling wronged. He has such a major system and perhaps he was always told in the feedback that BJP is winning. Although it does not matter what feedback is being given but while forming an overall strategy, it plays a role. This time, for the first time, it felt like the feedback system of government of India or the Prime Minister has not been that effective, or that they could not touch the nerve of the people or could not observe the ground realities. So, it can be said that this was a failure of intelligence system and due to this, it was a ‘Yes man briefing.’ So perhaps one needs to take a call on the people, who report to PM or the agencies that report to government, they will have to be vigilant and give the Prime Minister the authentic details and facts so that a debacle doesn’t happen on the policy level.

• How did Congress manage to reach the majority figure of 135 after 40 years? What were the reasons by which Congress won such a major victory?
  See, like I said earlier, the reasons for their (BJP) loss, became the reason for Congress’ victory. The biggest thing is destiny. Congress’ revival had to happen from Karnataka, in a way, so that happened. Apart from the negative points of the BJP, like the anti-establishments feeling, the corruption charges, the failure of input system etc, the biggest factor was that the two groups in Congress stood united, which actually happens with great difficulty in states. And they contested the elections as one unit and when Rahul Gandhi had carried out his ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ from that state and his interactions with these leaders, became a difference. So, these leaders did not fight among themselves publicly, even though they may have differences. Secondly, the guarantees and the populist promises that have been made. Everyone makes promises but from where will you get those 62,000 crore rupees? The way of these promises was shown by Ashok Gehlot through OPS, which played a role in Himachal too. Then they gave assurances like free electricity, and pension to the female head of the family or free travel or cheap gas cylinder or interest free loan to fishermen, or increasing the reservation limit. So overall, a package was made of freebies. And what is more important is the fact that ‘Muslim polarisation’ of votes happened for the first time. So, there is no perfect reason for failure, but if we jot down, then these appear to be some of the reasons.

• Why couldn’t JDS become a ‘Kingmaker’ in these elections? And will there be a two-party system in Karnataka now?
  People did not give it the chance of playing that role. Although prior to the elections and after the exit polls, they kept on saying that we will be the ‘Kingmakers.’ They had complete faith and people did not give them that chance & thus, they didn’t become ‘Kingmakers. Regarding the two-party system, well you can say so, since the smaller parties and even JDS has been cleared out now. Now, there is a two-party system in Karnataka i.e. BJP and Congress and in fact, several think tanks and politicians and the people in power too believe that there should be two party in polity since regional parties play the game of ‘spoilers.’ It may therefore, be the beginning of two party system in Karnataka.

• So will Congress include JDS in its government now also?
  They are self- sufficient, they have clear majority, but sometimes in politics, there is camaraderie, like how Narendra Modi shows brotherhood in Government of India, where even though they had 303 seats, but Modi asked all the parties to move along. Perhaps they may have had such a thought. Thus, it could be so that going ahead, Congress shows large-heartedness and takes them along. And if it does not, then in 2024, BJP may ask them.

• About 73 percent voting was conducted in Karnataka this time. What are its implications? Also, how right were the exit polls?
  See, this result means that the people want to give a decisive mandate, whosoever it gives that mandate to. So the day, we found that 73 percent votes have been cast, I realised it was a decisive mandate. And going by the way Narendra Modi carried out his rally on the last day and the huge turnout of people, it seemed that the election would be ‘One way.’ But although that huge voter turnout was for Congress, but its implication is that people want to give decisive mandate. Secondly, exit polls have turned to be correct in the case of Karnataka. In 2018, eight exit polls were conducted of which, seven turned out to be correct. This time around, seven major exit polls were conducted of which, five said that Congress will lead. India Today had said that Congress will form government. So this time around, you can say that the credibility of exit polls have been restored in Karnataka.

TO BE CONTINUED…

During the show #JConKarnatakaCM trended top All-India on Twitter