AMID TRUMP’S TARIFF THREATS, MODI’S RS 1 LAKH CR MIDDLE-CLASS RELIEF BUDGET SENDS STRONG MESSAGE TO GLOBAL ECONOMIES: Dr CHANDRA

In the latest JC Show, Dr Jagdeesh Chandra covers various global political and economic issues, focusing on the actions of U.S. President Donald Trump, and their implications and contrasts Trump’s immigration policies with India’s challenges around illegal immigration, highlighting the role of vote politics in India. Dr. Chandra also discusses Trump’s trade war, tariffs on countries like Canada, China, and Mexico, and the resulting resistance. In economic matters, Modi’s budget is praised for offering relief in the face of global tax hikes. Furthermore, Dr Chandra addresses the impact of Trump’s policies on U.S.-India-China relations, his stance on Iran’s nuclear deal, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Additionally, he explores Trump’s relations with Pakistan and Bangladesh, emphasizing his support for India’s strategic interests. (Part-II)

• What is the fundamental difference between Trump’s campaign to remove illegal immigrants and India’s campaign to remove Bangladeshis?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: The fundamental difference is the politics of votes. In India, there is a focus on vote politics, but in the U.S., that’s not the case. India has a different kind of democracy with its own boundaries. No matter which political party is in power, there are always limits to removing illegal immigrants. Sometimes, cooperation from states is hard to get. For example, in Bengal, it was said that there was no cooperation. In India, this issue is such that we can’t compare it to America. There, vote politics don’t exist the way they do in India. As long as vote politics are in play, things will continue as they are in India. I read somewhere that the votes in India are what are harming the country. There is a political compulsion; let’s see if such a compulsion disappears one day and we can move like Trump is doing in America.

• Trump initiated a trade war by imposing heavy tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico. What will the reaction of these countries be?
  Just two days ago, I read that Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Canada and China, while an additional 10% tariff was imposed on China. Initially, there were talks of increasing it to 60%, but Trump is both smart and sensible. The question now is, what will be the reaction of these countries? The backlash has already begun. It started with Colombia, followed by Canada, which imposed a 25% tariff in retaliation. China and Mexico also declared that they would face this head-on and retaliate. These three countries have come together and created a counterstrategy, and now they are challenging Trump’s decision. In other words, resistance to Trump is growing, and these three nations have refused to accept his policy.

• With Trump’s ‘TariffTariff’ policy going on globally, do you think Modi’s relief-filled budget feels like a breath of fresh air?
  100%... This is Narendra Modi’s initiative. Through Sitharaman’s budget, he has sent a cool breeze to the international market. It’s true that the whole world is talking about taxes. Trump’s magic, or rather the fear of Trump, has taken hold in every nation, with people fearing he might impose new taxes in India as well. This has been spread across the country. Now, the move made by Narendra Modi shows that to run an economy, taxes alone are not enough. The economy runs on infrastructure and development. Narendra Modi has conducted a new experiment, and he has become a hero in his own country. The middle class, in particular, has fully devoted itself to him. The entire nation is dedicated, but the relief provided in taxes in the budget has been a big part of this. The atmosphere around taxes, the way Narendra Modi has moved, is peaceful and relieving, and it should be praised.

• What impact will Trump’s tough steps to stop illegal immigration in the U.S. have on India, China, and Muslim nations?
  There will be an impact. The entry of Muslim countries has more or less been banned. Other nations have also been subjected to such tough restrictions that almost everyone is being affected. Earlier, Indian students used to get a visa in 15 days, but now they are told to come after six months, and in some cases, even a year’s wait doesn’t guarantee a visa. This is breaking the hopes of millions of people who dreamed of going to America. We don’t know when this dream will be reviewed, but for now, Trump has clearly said, “No entry, we are closed.”

• Trump threatened BRICS countries that if they adopted any currency other than the dollar, he would impose 100% tariffs on them. Is this possible?
  That’s immaturity. If you couldn’t impose sanctions on Canada, how will you do it on BRICS countries? BRICS accounts for 70% of the world’s population and 40% of the market. If you impose bans on all countries, how will you conduct your own business? You also need to export and import. Developing an alternative to the dollar is not easy. 90% of the world’s trade is conducted in dollars. It’s an impractical move... It will die a natural death.

• Will Narendra Modi fulfil Trump’s demand to buy more weapons from the U.S.?
  Of course, some of it will happen. If we are buying weapons worth 100 rupees from Russia, we will also buy weapons worth 20 rupees from America. I believe America will get some share in India’s defence equipment market.

• How do you see role of Foreign Minister Jaishankar in India-US and India-China relations?
  His role is fantastic. He is a silent performer. He enjoys complete trust and support from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He has done a great job with China. When he went to the U.S., he represented Narendra Modi and sat in the first row. He is playing very well, and I think the government should be very happy with his performance. Whether it’s with China or the U.S., he is a silent performer.

• Trump promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war in six months. Will he be able to keep this promise?
  The promise is good, the intent is good, and the effort is good, but there is a big question mark on this. Just yesterday, Ukraine’s president made a statement saying, “Trump, if you want to make a deal with Russia and leave me out of it, it won’t happen. I must be involved in that peace negotiation.” This is a challenge. Ukraine’s president is quite dignified. If a deal happens between Russia and Trump, Ukraine will not accept it. We should hope... there is still a lot of time left in the next six months. It’s not even been a month yet. Earlier, Trump said he’d do it in 24 hours, but a deal between Russia and Ukraine can’t happen unless you go to Narendra Modi’s house and seek help. You need to sit both sides down and negotiate. Last time, India was very close to helping with the deal. Russia had said, “We need you,” and Ukraine had said, “We trust you.” Then the situation changed. So, I don’t think Trump can pull this off on his own without associating India and Narendra Modi, as well as Ukraine.

• How will Trump solve the complicated issue of Iran? Will there be a nuclear deal with Iran?
  There is one issue between America and Iran: Iran should not have nuclear bombs. Trump believes this, and his intelligence also says that Iran hasn’t made a nuclear bomb, but they have collected uranium to make one. Now, Trump wants to make a nuclear deal, but Iran is not ready. Iran says that Trump broke the deal during his previous tenure in 2017 without any notice, and now they don’t trust him. First, they want the economic sanctions lifted, and second, they want assurance that they will be a reliable partner. Then, the conversation may progress. Iran is demoralized due to the loss of their top leader, and Israel killed the Hamas chief. They are demoralized, and they might agree. The U.S. says they didn’t agree during Biden’s time, but they should agree now. The agreement might also involve inspections. Iran might agree now, as they are demoralized. There are chances that in the next couple of months, the conversation could move forward.

• What will Trump’s attitude be towards Bangladesh and Pakistan?
  It’s very clear—mentally, Trump is with India. He is convinced that Pakistan sponsors terrorism and that Pakistan takes money from many countries under various pretences. This should stop. Military aid to Pakistan, which amounted to billions, has been stopped for the past 7-8 years. Trump stopped it last time, and it remained halted during Biden’s time. There’s no chance of it restarting now. A regular $80 million aid was also cut. The situation in Pakistan is evident, and Bangladesh is in a similar situation. The current government in Bangladesh isn’t behaving well. Sheikh Hasina is in India, but the political parties in Bangladesh are opposing her. The fake king in Bangladesh is also on shaky ground, and he may flee one day. Since Trump is mentally aligned with India, his attitude toward Bangladesh and Pakistan will remain negative. He has no expectations from these countries, and this indirectly works in favour of India.

• What do you think about the agreement between China and India to restart the Mansarovar pilgrimage and direct flights?
  This is a very good agreement, another achievement for Narendra Modi. Millions of people have wanted this, and after the Kumbh, millions more will want this in the country. 7-7 million people go to the Kumbh every day, so in a year, 1 crore people can go to Mansarovar as well. There is a wave of devotion in the country. It’s good that China has allowed it, and direct flights have also resumed. This is a good step, a gesture of goodwill from the government, and a positive step in improving our strategic relationship with China.

• What is Trump’s role in the issue of handing over the Mumbai 26/11 attack criminal Rana to India?
  Trump’s role in this matter is one of moral support, silent support, and formal backing. No obstacles have been raised. The circumstances on this issue have worked in favour of Trump, which will give the Indian government a political advantage.

During the show #JConModiTrumpRelations trended top All-India on X