Amit Shah is a strategist extraordinaire, who wins every battle on paper first: Dr Chandra

With the ever-changing situations, Dr Jagdeesh Chandra explores the political dynamics for the upcoming 2025 elections with insights into key figures and parties. Amit Shah’s strategic prowess in controlling insurgencies and managing the BJP’s campaigns is praised. At the same time, speculation on the next BJP President suggests that JP Nadda might continue given his closeness to PM Modi. Further, Dr Chandra highlights Rahul Gandhi’s leadership struggles within Congress, especially after multiple losses and the weakening of his influence. The competition for Dalit votes, both within Congress and BJP, is a significant topic, with Mayawati and regional leaders gaining ground and Yogi Adityanath’s continued rise in Uttar Pradesh and his preparations for 2027 are also discussed, alongside his handling of challenges and growing popularity are also explored in depth. Excerpts...(Part-II)

• What is in store for Home Minister Amit Shah in 2025? Will he succeed in controlling insurgents and rebels in Chhattisgarh, Manipur, and Mizoram?
  Dr Jagdeesh Chandra: A person who works 24/7, his aura remains constant. Amit Shah, in particular, wins every battle first on paper and in the room before taking it to the field, and the credit will continue to go to him. In the Bihar elections, PM Modi will deliver a powerful speech, while Amit Shah will strategise. You can be sure that the BJP will form the government, and the credit for that will largely go to Amit Shah. Amit Shah has a history of completing every challenge he takes on, and his remarkable work on Article 370 is proof of that. In Chhattisgarh, he has promised to end insurgency by 2026, and I am confident he can do it. His planning is precise; he doesn’t indulge in mere rhetoric. For Manipur and Mizoram, he has strategically placed people in key positions. Ajay Bhalla, former Home Secretary, has been appointed Governor of Manipur, and ex-Army Chief VK Singh is now Governor of Mizoram. Both will work closely, directly under the coordination of the Home Ministry. Indirectly, the Home Ministry has already taken control of Manipur, with the Chief Minister being a ceremonial figure. Despite challenges regarding caste issues, the government has found a middle path, controlling the situation through bureaucracy and military deployment. Under Amit Shah’s direct supervision, I am confident these issues will be sorted.
   
• Who is likely to be the new BJP President after Nadda in January 2025?
  Nadda’s tenure has already been extended several times. Organisational elections in half of the states are required before a new National President can be announced, which will likely happen by the end of January or the first week of February. Seven BJP state chiefs will be replaced, and a new national president will be appointed. Many names are being discussed, including Manohar Lal, Bhupender Yadav, Raghuvar Das, and Dharmendra Pradhan. However, I feel that PM Modi has settled on JP Nadda, as he believes that the party members are comfortable with him. Under Nadda’s leadership, the party has won all the elections. It wouldn’t be surprising if Nadda gets another extension. As I mentioned earlier, Nadda has been an integral part of the PM’s decisionmaking process for the past year and is very close to both the PM and Amit Shah. Given this, Nadda may continue as the party chief. However, the final decision will rest with Mohan Bhagwat and Narendra Modi.
   
• What do you foresee for Rahul Gandhi in 2025?
  Rahul Gandhi is essentially a one-man army. He is currently on vacation, which is every individual’s right, but for the BJP, this provides an issue as they highlight his absence. The challenge for Rahul Gandhi is both within the party and outside it. 2025 will be a year full of challenges for him. The losses in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jammu & Kashmir, along with defections, have isolated him within the party. His leadership and influence are dwindling, and the hope that was built around the Bharat Jodo Yatra is slowly fading. He faces criticism for being perceived as non-serious. While he talks about ideals and values, his practical political approach on the ground is questioned. The internal view in the Congress is that unless he adapts his approach, the party cannot move forward. However, Rahul Gandhi remains the leader of Congress, with no other alternatives emerging in the party, no matter how many seats Congress wins or loses. Another challenge for him is the opposition unity, which he has struggled to maintain. Leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav, and Lalu Yadav have distanced themselves from him. Many speculate that Rahul’s membership and position as Leader of Opposition (LoP) might even be at risk. Overall, 2025 will be a tough year for him. As for the BJP, they have redefined Rahul Gandhi’s image, portraying him as an undisciplined young man, and this is working in their favour.
   
• Is there dissent within the Congress, particularly with senior leaders like KC Venugopal and Kanugolu?
  There are whispers within Congress that KC Venugopal holds too much power at the moment. Rahul Gandhi trusts the traditional leadership less and prefers to discuss matters more with KC Venugopal and Kanugolu. This centralization of power has upset some within the party. There are other capable leaders in Congress, such as Ajay Maken, who is very experienced and well-placed. However, there is a feeling that KC Venugopal lacks a full understanding of the northern states. Rahul Gandhi needs to bring those leaders on board and work with everyone in the party
   
• How dependent are Narendra Modi’s BJP and government on leaders like Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar? Could Nitish Kumar switch sides again?
  Let me make it clear: no one is indispensable for Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. They have options for every situation. If needed, the BJP could easily switch allies. For example, a call could be made to Naveen Patnaik in Bhubaneswar, and he might support the BJP. Likewise, if necessary, seats could be won in Hyderabad. Regarding Nitish Kumar, all his close associates are already with the BJP. There is no threat from either of these coalition partners. The BJP has a backup plan for every scenario, and these regional leaders are well aware of that
   
• Will Congress or BJP benefit the most from Dalit politics in 2025?
  The true beneficiaries of Dalit politics will likely be those who have long championed the cause of Dr Ambedkar, such as Mayawati, Chandrashekhar Azad, and Prakash Ambedkar in Maharashtra. While Congress and BJP fight for the narrative of who is the true follower of Ambedkar, the real impact will be felt during the elections. Dalit votes are not aligned with any single party; they are divided. It will depend on the mood at the time of the elections. In the past, Congress benefitted when the mood was in their favour, but now the situation is more divided. Currently, Congress has the upper hand, but this could change as momentum shifts. The beneficiary will depend on the elections in Delhi and Bihar, where we will see the true impact of this issue
   
• How effective will the BJP’s attempt to claim credit for Ambedkar’s legacy be?
  For now, the BJP is focusing on Ambedkar and has temporarily shifted its focus from other issues. In the short term, this narrative will dominate. Recently, at an event in Madhya Pradesh, PM Modi credited Ambedkar for the idea of connecting rivers and roads. He even claimed that the infrastructure projects underway across the country were in line with Ambedkar’s vision. This may work for some time as the BJP reshapes its agenda to be pro-Ambedkar. However, it remains to be seen how long this narrative will hold. Congress, too, is attempting to claim Ambedkar’s legacy, and there will be a constant battle between the two. However, both parties have made Ambedkar a central figure in their strategies, though how effective this will be in the long term is uncertain.
   
• In the conflict between Congress and BJP, who will truly benefit from Dalit votes in 2025?
  The true beneficiaries of Dalit votes will likely be those who have a track record of focusing on the issues that matter to the Dalit community, such as Mayawati, Chandrashekhar Azad, and Prakash Ambedkar. While Congress and BJP fight for control of the Dalit narrative, they are facing increasing competition from these leaders, who have gained prominence in Dalit politics. In particular, their influence will be felt in Maharashtra, where they hold significant sway. However, the overall outcome remains unclear as the Dalit vote is still fragmented
   
• What do you foresee for BJP, Aam Aadmi Party, and Congress in the 2025 Delhi Assembly Elections?
  If we start with Congress in Delhi, I see them securing around 8-10 seats. The internal surveys suggest a slightly higher number, but it mainly depends on the Muslim-majority areas. A significant number of Muslims who left the AAP have joined Congress, and Congress has given them tickets. These candidates were already prepared, so Congress has taken a bit of a gamble here. Ajay Maken is in charge of Delhi for Congress, but it’s unclear who is deciding the tickets now. In many ways, Congress appears to be the third player in this race. But sometimes, miracles happen. It could be that voters, disillusioned with the BJP, might consider giving Congress a chance, thinking that AAP has been embroiled in too many fights and hasn’t allowed the government to function properly. The same argument can be made for BJP too. BJP supporters believe they will secure a sweeping majority. The public believes that whether it was Kejriwal’s mistakes or other reasons, work hasn’t been done because the government either didn’t perform or wasn’t allowed to perform. The outcome is that people feel like they don’t want to be caught up in this constant bickering anymore. They want someone who will deliver results. In Delhi, Kejriwal is deeply embedded in the culture here, so I don’t see him being completely ousted anytime soon. I think the people will give a decisive mandate, whether to Kejriwal or the BJP. Congress might secure 8-10 or possibly 15 seats, but one thing is certain: the direct fight between Congress and AAP will benefit the BJP.
   
• What does the future look like for Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in 2025, especially after his “Batenge to Katenge” slogan became so popular?
  Yogi Adityanath is in high spirits; 2024 was good for him, and the final phase of the year was particularly positive. Looking ahead, 2025 seems promising. Just look at the results—he won 7 out of 9 seats, which was almost a miracle. All speculations, advice, talks of change, or cabinet reshuffles have all ended. The Yogi factor is revived. Now, with the upcoming Kumbh Mela, the next three months will see around 45 crore people coming from across the country and abroad. Prime Minister Modi, Amit Shah, and many others will also visit. The Kumbh will bring a spotlight, and Yogi will remain at the ‘center’ of it all. Then, the unexpected incident in Sambhal further strengthened his position. All in all, he is at the peak of his popularity in Uttar Pradesh right now. If this momentum continues, Yogi’s return in 2027 seems almost certain. His focus is on 2027, and he’s already laying the groundwork for that. His key advisor, Avnish Awasthi, came to meet him recently, and you could see the confidence and happiness in him. While Awasthi still plays the role of an advisor, he is also like a friend, philosopher, and guide to Yogi. Yogi’s team is in high morale, everyone is feeling positive, and Yogi’s current demeanour shows just how happy and in command he is. He’s been distributing invitations, and meeting with top officials like the President, and you can see the shine on his face. There’s a visible glow of self-confidence and happiness. I think Yogi is on track for 2027, and things are looking good for him.​​​

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